Fantasy: PFF Mailbag - July

Throughout the 2012-2013 NFL season, I will be answering some of the better questions that come my way on Twitter in a mailbag. Once the preseason starts, the mailbag will be weekly. Sometimes, Twitter questions require more than 140 characters. Let's take a look at what some people are asking in July, a month away from most fantasy drafts and two months away from the real deal.

With that being said, you should not be in the position of owning only two wide receivers by the 8th round. Even if you follow the RB/RB/RB strategy, you should still have three receivers round eight. So, in your case, you should have gone with Little because of your roster needs. However, either Hillman or Little in the 8th would be too early; both players should be drafted in the 10th.

Between Hillman and Little, I like Little a bit more because Hillman is behind Willis McGahee, and I think McGahee will get more work than people are expecting. Is it just me or is that always the case with McGahee?

Little led all qualifying receivers with an 18.67 percent drop rate. Even if he dropped half the amount of balls (7 instead of 14), he still would have ranked pretty high in terms of drop percentage. He also had a very low 1.19 yards per pass route, t-40th among 45 qualifying receivers. And, perhaps most importantly, the Cleveland's offense has a low ceiling.

Beanie Wells is expected to carry the majority of the load for the Cardinals. He should end the season with a little more than 200 carries, while all other backs will combine for about 150 carries. He ended last season with over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns, pretty solid fantasy numbers for a guy being drafted in the 6th round.

Wells won't catch many balls, and without more carries he will have a hard time reaching 1,000 yards on the ground again. But he remains a solid goal-line back, capable of scoring two touchdowns any given week. His value is higher in TD-heavy leagues, otherwise he is best served as a flex option in 2012.

My guess is that Ryan Williams ends with up about 150 total touches, 500 total yards, and 2-3 touchdowns. I really think that, health permitting, Wells will see every goal-line carry. Williams will end the season with more receptions than Wells, but don't expect a 50-catch season from him.

This is such a tough question to answer in July, as it's trying to predict games that won't be played until December. But I'll give it a shot.

Quarterback – If he's healthy, Peyton Manning's weeks 14-16 opponents are not too shabby. At Oakland, at Baltimore, and at home against Cleveland. Of the super elite quarterback options, Tom Brady's 14-16 schedule looks like the toughest, with two of those three playoff games against Houston and San Francisco.

Running Back – Arian Foster. Weeks 14-16 he has New England, Indianapolis, and Minnesota.

Wide Receiver – Mike Wallace faces San Diego, Dallas, and Cincinnati in the final three fantasy games. Not bad.

Tight End – Either Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski. I don't care who their opponents are. Neither do they.

In all seriousness, though, week 14-16 opponents should be at the bottom of the barrel in terms of importance to you on draft day. If you avoid Brady at a value price because of his December opponents, you are over thinking it.

4) How can Mark Ingram go from a top 3 round pick last year to a fantasy afterthought? #fantasyfootball – @oldy75

Last season, Ingram was a late fourth round/early fifth round pick, not a top-three round pick. I also wouldn't go so far to call him a “fantasy afterthought” this season, but he has certainly lost plenty of value. His slide can be attributed to a couple of things. For one, he was a rookie last season, so his ADP was based entirely on speculation. Then there's the fact that he underperformed. Also, Ingram has lost value on his own team because of the perfect fit Darren Sproles turned out to be and the fact that the Saints pass the ball. A lot. The Saints ran the ball only 37.3 percent of the time last season (counting drop-backs vs. rushes).

His team situation is something that held him back. He was only able to get on the field for 219 snaps last season because of Sproles and Pierre Thomas. Ricky Williams saw more snaps than Ingram last season. I bet you had forgotten that Ricky Williams even played last year. Ingram's 3.9 YPC average was dwarfed by Sproles' (6.9) and Thomas' (5.1). He still managed 5 touchdowns and saw plenty of goal-line opportunities, which is always a good thing from a fantasy perspective.

Despite seeing half the amount of snaps as Thomas and Sproles, Ingram did lead the team with 122 carries last season. Expect him to lead the team in carries again in 2012, potentially reaching 200 carries. Both Thomas and Sproles will be used in the passing game much more than Ingram, so his value is significantly smaller in PPR leagues.

Because he is still the “lead running back” in the offense, he is relevant in fantasy. Ingram could end the season with 850 yards and seven touchdowns, decent numbers for a 8th or 9th round pick.

5) You said that you still like the RB-RB method. But most tier2/3 RBs have issues. Which ones would you shoot for and when? – @bstanley52

I do like the RB/RB method, but I'm not so headstrong about it that I would reach for an RB in the second round if everyone on my board was gone. But there should be some good options on the board when you're up in round two. I like Demarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, Trent Richardson, Matt Forte, and Jamaal Charles in the second. And, obviously, any first rounders that slip into the early second.

You'll notice that Adrian Peterson is not on my list. His injury occurred so late in the season and, as of now, I'm avoiding him unless he's available in the third round.

My personal number one target for the second round has been Trent Richardson. I like him as a top-10 back this season. My second target has been Demarco Murray, although the fantasy community seems to be split on how good he will be this season.

Want one of your questions answered in the PFF Fantasy mailbag? Send your questions to Tyler Loechner on Twitter – @PFF_Loechner

Writer's Note: It has come to my attention that Peyton Manning probably wasn't the best choice as a quarterback with good match-ups weeks 14-16. I do think if Suggs is out all season, the Ravens entire defense becomes much less effective. The Browns are stingier through the air than I initially accounted for. I stand by my logic of not over-thinking it, though. Thanks for the feedback!