While the offseason hasn’t really started with the lockout, there was one move that already shook up the NFC South. Jeremy Shockey was cut by the Saints and signed by the Panthers. This has opened up the doors for the tight ends of the Saints, closed the door for the tight ends of the Panthers, and kept Jeremy Shockey as not the best fantasy option anymore.
The South is full of big name tight ends, with Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy Shockey and Kellen Winslow all being former first round picks and all older veterans. Gonzalez and Winslow are both currently ranked as tight end ones, but there is one player in this division who stands out amongst them all, and there are plenty of people who still don’t know his name.
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The Best of the Best: Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints
Current 2011 Projections: 87 TA, 64 Rec., 734 yards, 8 TD
Analysis: In Week 9 of the 2010 season, Graham started seeing more time in the Saints offense, getting roughly 30% of the Saints offensive snaps for the rest of the season. In his eight games he saw positive ratings in six of his eight games and that was enough for the Saints to cut Shockey and give Graham the chance to be a full time starter going into 2011.
While his 73.8% catch rate and 11.5 yards per catch aren’t amazing numbers, the opportunities that Graham will get as the number one tight end is enough to have him ranked as our number seven ranked tight end. Five of his 31 catches ended up in touchdowns, so that high touchdown ratio helps make him a very attractive option.
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Moving On Up: Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current 2011 Projections: 93 TA, 65 Rec., 751 yards, 5 TD
Analysis: In his second year with the Buccaneers, Winslow saw big improvements with the Buccaneers offense. While he saw fewer targets, the percentage of balls caught went up and improved at running with the ball after the catch. All five of his touchdowns came from balls thrown 10 yards down the field or deeper.
In 2011, he should continue to improve as Josh Freeman progresses as a quarterback. The number of targets he saw that were low mostly came at the beginning of the season, so he should go back to a higher number of targets again. A combined more targets and a stronger offense should result in a better season for Winslow in 2011 and possibly future years as well.
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On The Way Down: Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons
Current 2011 Projections: 102 TA, 66 Rec., 665 yards, 5 TD
Analysis: Over the past three years, Gonzalez has seen a rapid decline in his PFF catch rating, to the point where it was just a little above average in 2010. We still expect him to see a high number of targets in 2011, so he is still a valuable tight end option, but the quality of his play probably won’t remain as good.
There were only four games where Gonzalez saw more than 50 yards. He only caught two thirds of the passes thrown his way, and his yards per reception dropped below 10. If his production dips any lower than that, the Falcons could very well let someone else start seeing some of those targets which would take Gonzalez out of the starting fantasy tight ends list.
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A Name To Remember: Dave Thomas, New Orleans Saints
Current 2011 Projections: 41 TA, 29 Rec., 261 yards, 1 TD
Analysis: By far the most attractive back up option in this division is Dave Thomas of the Saints. Over the course of the 2010 season, in the games Thomas played in he averaged over 60% of the snaps. With Shockey out of the picture that number might go up. In 2010 he was slightly below average in terms of his ability to catch passes.
What makes this an attractive option is the Saints offense allows many opportunities to rack up points in the fantasy world. If Graham were to get injured or regress, that would allow Thomas to get even more opportunities and become a solid backup fantasy tight end. However Thomas could also be an unrestricted free agent depending on the rules of free agency, in which case whoever becomes the Saints backup tight end would be the one to know.
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