Fantasy News & Analysis

Monkey Knife Fight Divisional Round Preview: PFF's picks for player prop contests & games

Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) rushes back to the locker room after beating the Pittsburgh Steelers in an NFL wild-card playoff football game, Sunday, Jan. 10, 2021, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. [Jeff Lange/Beacon Journal] Browns Extras 10

Monkey Knife Fight is a daily fantasy sports gaming website that lets you win money on both NFL games and the players who participate in those matchups. It is a unique prop game that plays similar to fantasy football.

There are several contests to choose from, none of which require the hours of research required on other sites. The contest types are fairly straightforward:

Stat Shootout – You will be choosing your team of players from the list that will accumulate the most of the stat type you have chosen to play, such as touchdowns. Then, you choose a target goal for that stat and watch the players score live. If your team exceeds your chosen goal, you win the prize shown prior to entry.

Rapid Fire – You will be selecting your team by choosing the highest-scoring player in multiple head-to-head matchups in statistical categories. They will need to beat the unchosen players in their head-to-head matchups.  If a player gets additional points added to their score in a matchup, they will be shown in green (ex: +14.5). Choose the coinciding posted number of matchups correctly to win the prize shown prior to entry.

More/Less –  You will be drafting your team by choosing More or Less for a group of player statistics presented. You will be squaring off with your own predictions. Choose the coinciding number of tiers correctly to win the prize shown prior to entry.

The payouts on Monkey Knife Fight increase with your risk appetite, start with a simple 2/2 or go for their highest payouts with 8/8 “more-or-less” games. No matter the contest type, all allow the ability to correlate player props into outsized returns.

[Editor's Note: All first-time MKF players that deposit at least $20 into their new account will receive a FREE PFF EDGE subscription if they use promo code PFF. Create your new MKF account and deposit here.]

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The widest spread of the weekend is the most likely to result in a lop-sided blowout. PFF Greenline actually leans toward a closer game than the current market expectation but has no play on the sky-high total.

The Chiefs have slid to the sixth-best offense in our opponent-adjusted grades, with the Browns moving up to fourth overall. If Greenline’s expected game script plays out, it’s possible fading two of the biggest stars of the Chiefs' offense is the correct path to success on Monkey Knife Fight.

RAPID FIRE 3X

Baker Mayfield +61.5 OVER (MORE) Passing Yards than Patrick Mahomes 

There isn’t a better time for Baker to wake up feeling dangerous than a road playoff game as a 10-point underdog. Last week, the Browns’ defense pushed an initial lead that could be salted away the majority of the game. This week, things may not be so easy for the Browns, as most project a need for Mayfield to go toe-to-toe with Mahomes to secure another upset victory.

This doesn’t appear to be what Monkey Knife Fight is pricing in, however, as they are enticing players to take Mayfield at a +61.5 head start. The initial prop numbers do fall close to this alignment, projecting Mahomes to finish with 60 more yards than Mayfield.

Mayfield’s prop number has adjusted significantly in this matchup, as 260.5 is the second-highest yardage number for him this season. Some adjustment was warranted, however, as Mayfield has cashed the over on this prop in six of the past seven games.

The playoffs bring a heightened discussion on how each game will play out. The popular narratives all seem to point to Mayfield capable of keeping pace in relation to passing yards. Any other game scenarios would require Mahomes to put up a signature playoff performance, which is why his over 2.5 touchdown prop makes for the perfect pairing to this Monkey Knife Fight contest.

Travis Kelce OVER (MORE) Receiving Yards than Tyreek Hill +4.5

The Hill-Kelce head-to-head feels a bit more random. Hill’s deep shots make him more correlated to Mahomes going off through the air, fading this plays into our preference for Mayfield. Hill does have the plus spread, but the prop numbers for both indicate this should be wider than +4.5.

Kelce has led the team target share of late, seeing more targets than Hill in each of the past four games. The Browns have no one who can cover Kelce, but there is at least discussion in regards to Hill. Denzel Ward has lived on the left side of the defensive formation this season, and Hill spends the majority of routes in the slot. No one expects this matchup to materialize, but things can change in the playoffs. There is at least enough of a question to make Kelce the preferred lean given our current understanding of this matchup.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

We couldn’t ask for a better game to wrap the Divisional Round than Brady and Brees. Pitting them against each other in prop action will only add to the excitement.

This matchup looks to be the most difficult game to find betting value, according to Greenline, as no clear preference exists on the spread or moneyline.

There is a clear preference that exists on the total, which has also been the direction of the line movement. This can also provide us with guidance on which Monkey Knife Fight contest to select.

MORE OR LESS 3.5X

Alvin Kamara UNDER 68.5 Rushing Yards

Leonard Fournette UNDER 53.5 Rushing Yards

This could be an oversight, as the perfect pivot off the most popular game narrative is for the running backs to shine in this matchup. But they could shine and still not get over these inflated rushing totals.

All signs point to Ronald Jones being officially active, which has pushed Fournette’s yardage prop down to 40.5. An adjustment would clearly occur if Jones inevitably sits, but right now this MKF number is pricing in too much recency bias. 53.5 would be well within the prop range Fournette saw when Jones sat, which makes his availability a clear case to fade Fournette at the best price to be found.

Fading Kamara's rushing yardage simply projects his involvement to come in the passing game. He has seen insane rushing volume in his past two games, but game script plays a critical role in evaluating those performances. Latavius Murray was also heavily involved, which indicates an overall uptick in volume, as opposed to usage.

The Monkey Knife Fight number is eight yards higher than Kamara’s current prop number and would be the highest rushing yardage prop number he has closed at all season. It offers too much value to consider playing any other options in the Sunday nightcap.

Know tomorrow, today. Western Southern Financial Group.
Sponsor

Fantasy Featured Tools

  • Sort projected player stats and fantasy points by position, week, and category.

    Available with

    Edge
  • Available with

    Edge
  • PFF's Fantasy Football Expected Points tool is primarily used for identifying potential over and undervalued players.

    Available with

    Elite
  • Research past fantasy performance with sortable player stats including PFF-exclusives like aDOT and fantasy points per opportunity.

    Available with

    Edge
  • PFF’s Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position.

    Available with

    Edge
Pro Subscriptions

Unlock NFL Player Grades, Fantasy & NFL Draft

$9.99 / mo
$39.99 / yr

Unlock Premium Stats, PFF Greenline & DFS

$34.99 / mo
$199.99 / yr