Fantasy: Mailbag Week 6

Throughout the 2011 season, Tyler Loechner and Alex Miglio will select Twitter questions and answer them right here at PFF Fantasy. Although you’re bound to have your questions answered almost immediately from the staff on Twitter, we will choose a handful of good questions each week and give them more in-depth answers. Here are this week’s questions and answers:

Should I trade Maclin for McGahee in a non-PPR league? – @Spuzzem

Loechner – Stick with Jeremy Maclin. He has quietly started the season off on an excellent note. Maclin is currently the 12th best receiver in standard leagues, making him a tail end WR1. His 46 targets are tied for sixth in the league and his 32 receptions are tied for second. He has scored three touchdowns, and Mike Clay’s rest-of-season wide receiver projections predict seven more.

McGahee has been very impressive since taking over the starting role, but I’m expecting him to regress. While three of his past four games have seen him go for over 100 yards, he has scored only one touchdown. Here are McGahee’s four games broken down:

Week	Snap %	Att.	Yards	Avg.
2	76.1	28	101	3.6
3	76.5	22	52	2.4
4	50.8	15	103	6.9
5	51	16	125	7.8

As you can see, he was able to keep his production up despite a significant dip in playing time. On paper, his 103 and 125-yard performances look great. When you take a closer look, though, you realize he had a 6.9 and 7.8 YPC average in those two games – an unrealistic pace to keep. The lowered snap total will lead to less attempts and less yards as the season progresses.

Pick 2, std scoring, Non-PPR: Tomlinson, B. Marshall, James Jones [sic] – @Philtheappleguy

Loechner – Brandon Marshall is a must start out of that group of three. He does have a tough matchup on “Revis Island” this week, but you can’t bench him in favor of the other two. Plus – he’s planning on getting ejected before halftime on Monday Night Football. Don’t you want an excuse to watch that happen?

As for the other two, go with James Jones. Tomlinson is a hit-or-miss candidate on a weekly basis, with a much better chance of missing. If the Jets don’t utilize the screen game, Tomlinson won’t give you anything. Jones will give you a higher chance of scoring a touchdown this week as well, regardless of how often the Jets use the screen.

While Jones is currently fourth among Green Bay receivers in terms of playing time, he’s, well, on the Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers is playing in another world right now (along with Brady), and the Pack have a favorable matchup against the St. Louis Rams this weekend. Jones has touchdowns in back-to-back weeks and until Green Bay’s offense slows down, he has a chance to score every week.

Should I start Ryan Torain or Santonio Holmes this week? PPR League. – @ColdWind8520

Loechner – With their current track records heading into this week, Torain looks to have more upside. However, I’m giving Holmes one more week to show what he’s got on Monday Night Football before I stop singing his name.

I’ve given Santonio Holmes a pretty long leash so far this season, and he hasn’t come through yet. He has a -1.5 PFF rating and has registered just 17 catches for 224 yards. Ryan Torain has played in only one game (week 4), and was very impressive. He carried the ball 19 times for 135 yards and one touchdown.

In the impossible-to-guess offense of Mike Shanahan, Torain receiving 20 carries again seems unlikely. He played in just 30 of a potential 73 offensive snaps in week 4. In that same game, Tim Hightower played 30 snaps as well. What I’m trying to say is – the 135-yard performance could just have easily been Hightower’s . If Torain receives the majority of the carries and has a huge game again, I’ll eat my words. Until then, I’ll go with the safer play in Holmes.

Although Holmes has just 17 catches for 224 yards this season, he does have two touchdowns. Holmes has more targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns (tied with Plaxico Burress) than any other Jet receiver. He is New York’s best receiver, and his 90.4 percent playing time (100 percent last week) shows that the Jets haven’t given up on him.

Who would you start in a PPR D Thomas or BJGE.. and would you trade AJ Green and D Thomas for B Wells and Sydney Rice? Fair? – @Tyrellstewart

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Loechner – I like Benjarvus Green-Ellis over Daniel Thomas this week (and most weeks). Green-Ellis has been fantastic the past two weeks for New England. His PFF rating in the last two games has been 3.8 and 4.1. He has averaged 22 carries a game for 105 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. While New England still has Tom Brady, they have begun to use a much more balanced attack. Don't let Stevan Ridley's presence scare you…yet. The “Law Firm” is still the man in New England, especially around the goal line. Thomas has shown promise in his first two games, but his hamstring injury scares me. He'll play Monday night, no doubt, but it might be in a limited role. The Dolphins going to have a hard time moving the ball up and down the field against the Jets' defense.

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As for the trade, I think that's a fair offer. Beanie Wells has been an absolute monster this season and if he continues at his current pace, the trade will heavily favor whomever receives him. I do expect Wells to regress somewhat, and I expect A.J. Green to improve. Broken down, I would rather own Green than Rice, and I would rather own Wells than Thomas. With Wells playing at such a high level, the trade might appear to be uneven. But Green and Thomas haven't reached their ceilings yet, making this a fair trade.

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In order the following TEs moving forward. E.Dickson, F.Davis, B.Watson, K.Winslow, E.Moore, J.Ballard, H.Miller, M.Lewis – @ldg028

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Loechner – Moving forward with this group, my order would be: Dickson, Winslow, Davis, Watson, Lewis, Miller, Moore, and Ballard.

With 31 targets so far, Dickson is tied for seventh among TEs. He's in good company, too. Rob Gronkowski, Jermichael Finely, Dustin Keller, and Owen Daniels all have 31 targets as well. He has caught only one touchdown so far this season, but as his rapport with Joe Flacco grows I expect his production to increase as well.

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Winslow has been a relative disappointment, but so has the rest of Tampa Bay's offense. But Winslow has seen 36 targets this season. Only Mike Williams has seen more targets (37) in Tampa, so Winslow is clearly one of the favorites. He has yet to score a touchdown, but Josh Freeman has only thrown three touchdowns all season. I'm banking on the Buccaneers getting their act together sooner rather than later.

Fred Davis has slowed down significantly after the first two weeks of the season. His totals for weeks 1 and 2: 11 receptions, 191 yards, one touchdown. His total for weeks 3 and 4: five receptions, 57 yards, no touchdowns. With that being said, Davis played a higher percentage of snaps in weeks 3 and 4. He's still on the field and will get plenty of opportunities as the season progresses.

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Follow Tyler Loechner (@PFF_Loechner) and Alex Miglio (@PFF_Alex) on Twitter.