A collaborative post by Ross Miles and Jeff Ratcliffe.
The IDP team breaks down and ranks the IDP rosters of all 32 NFL teams, by taking the average projected points per team for players projected to play over 500 snaps in 2011. For each franchise starting caliber players (top 10) are listed for big-play scoring formats, such as our own IDP scoring system, and tackle-heavy (or more standard) leagues.
See teams ranked 32 – 17 here.
8. San Francisco 49ers (99.50)
The 49ers defensive unit possess the #1 IDP scorer in Patrick Willis and #1 3-4 DE in Justin Smith, which is where the majority of their value comes from. Willis is the very definition of an IDP stud, averaging 148.75 total tackles, 6.75 turnovers and 1 TD a season. His floor is higher than most players’ ceilings. Justin Smith graded +44.9 last year, more than double any other 3-4 DE, ranking first in sacks (9) and pressures (39), joint second in hits (8) and third in tackles (48). Donte Whitner was signed in free agency from Buffalo, and having improved his tackle frequency in each f the last three seasons can be expected to be a reliable contributor in all formats, but could push to be a top 5 DB in tackle-heavy leagues. Navorro Bowman makes for an interesting sleeper, taking over from Takeo Spikes as in ILB opposite Willis.
Big-Play Studs: Patrick Willis (LB), Donte Whitner (S)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: Patrick Willis (LB), Donte Whitner (S), Justin Smith (DE)
7. St. Louis Rams (99.82)
Steve Spagnuolo’s improving defense is starting to show fantasy potential thanks to some solid drafting in the past few seasons. James Laurinaitis has all the hallmarks of a Pro Bowl linebacker and has enough to his game when blitzing and dropping into coverage to challenge to be a top 3 IDP scorer. Quintin Mikell has been our top graded safety in two of the last three years and will fit Spag’s system much more than the departed O.J. Atogwe did. Although he plays at free safety, expect to see plenty of plays with Mikell in the box, making tackles. The Rams pass-rush has suddenly become fearsome after Chris Long had a breakout campaign last year, recording 8 sacks, 13 hits and 57 pressures, while opposite will be a rotation of rookie Robert Quinn and James Hall, coming off a career-year (10 sacks). Bradley Fletcher also makes for a nice sleeper CB after 68 total tackles and 4 interceptions last year, his first as a starter.
Big-Play Studs: James Laurinaitis (LB), Quintin Mikell (S)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: James Laurinaitis (LB), Quintin Mikell (S)
6. Arizona Cardinals (100.08)
The Cardinals 3-4 defense is a productive one from a fantasy perspective and although it only contains one ‘stud’, it has several IDP players who are going to start for you. At 6’8” and 310lbs, Calais Campbell is a force to be reckoned with, and often gets less attention than his more illustrious partner in crime, Darnell Dockett. Campbell led the Cardinals with 6 sacks last year, but also added 48 total tackles, and should see improvement this year. Daryl Washington becomes a three down ILB this year and should see 1,000+ snaps, meaning he’ll push for 100 total tackles and have LB2 value. Injury has slowed Adrian Wilson, so although he will be in the box and blitzing, expect reduced production. Having traded Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and seen Greg Toler placed on IR, rookie Patrick Peterson will start and have value, especially if you get return yards as he is the Cardinals runt returner. Kerry Rhodes had the second most snaps among DBs last year, which explains his increased value, so be expect no more than low-end DB2 production.
Big-Play Studs: Calais Campbell (DE)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: Calais Campbell (DE)
5. Carolina Panthers (100.09)
Carolina’s IDP value comes from its LB corps, featuring IDP stud Jon Beason, James Andersen and Thomas Davis. Beason moves back to the MLB role and is expected to return to being a top 5 IDP scorer, while Andersen will look to build on his 112 total tackles season from a year ago. Davis was set to record his second consecutive 100+ tackle season but succumbed to injury in week 7 and now returns too. Charles Johnson firmly established himself in the pass-rushing elite when given his opportunity and with 69 hits and pressures last year, could even improve on his 12 sacks making him a great DE1. 4th year safety Charles Godfrey amassed 86 total tackles in 2010 and holds DB2 value this year.
Big-Play Studs: Charles Johnson (DE), Jon Beason (LB)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: Charles Johnson (DE), Jon Beason (LB)
4. Detroit Lions (101.09)
It’s very rare that a defensive tackle makes so much impact as a rookie, but Ndamukong Suh immediately installed himself as the clear DT1 in IDP leagues with 11 sacks and 58 total tackles. He has enough value to challenge for a place in the top 5 D-Lineman because of his high tackle numbers compared to pure pass-rushing ends like Robert Mathis and John Abraham. Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril are the bookends to the exciting Lions defensive line and are interesting upside players. The linebacking trio of Stephen Tulloch, DeAndre Levy and Justin Durant all offer scoring potential, but only Tulloch would be an every week starter. With 82 total tackles, Louis Delmas is a DB2, but he has flashed an under-used ability to blitz opposing QBs (10 combined sacks, hits and pressures in 20 blitzes)
Big-Play Studs: Ndamukong Suh (DT)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: Ndamukong Suh (DT)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (101.36)
An active offseason saw several high profile additions to the Eagles defense which has helped bump its IDP value. Trent Cole, a longtime elite DE now has Jason Babin opposite. Babin was very impressive last year, grading +25.1 and recording 14 sacks and will make it harder for teams to scheme solely to shut down Cole. The aforementioned combination also helps Cullen Jenkins have some sneaky value at DT, as he had 8 sacks and a +20.2 grade last year on just 573 snaps. It’s not clear at LB who will win and retain the MLB job between Casey Matthews and Jamar Chaney, although Mathews currently has the inside track. This hurts both their values until there is more certainty. Kurt Coleman made 14 tackles in 2 games as a starter and beat out rookie Jaiquawn Jarrett to retain the starting SS spot, so offers sleeper potential.
Big-Play Studs: Trent Cole (DE)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: Trent Cole (DE)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (107.20)
As you would expect, the Steelers have the best IDP linebacker corps in fantasy football. Lawrence Timmons will be battling Patrick Willis for the top IDP scorer in 2011, while James Harrrison and Lamarr Woodley combined strong tackles numbers with game-changing turnovers. Harrison is a LB1 in big-play heavy formats, while Woodley is a step behind and only a LB3 in tackle-heavy systems. The secondary is littered with able fantasy contributors (Bryant McFadden, Ryan Clark, Ike Taylor) but Troy Polamalu is the stand-out. Although hampered by injury, he is an explosive player who can be a DB1 if he plays all 16 games.
Big-Play Studs: Lawrence Timmons (LB), James Harrison (LB), Troy Polamalu (DB)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: Lawrence Timmons (LB), Bryant McFadden (CB)
1. Green Bay Packers (109.09)
Green Bay possesses a stacked IDP roster, and if you are looking for a fantasy cornerback, the search starts with the Packers, Charles Woodson. Woodson not only racks up high tackle numbers, but blitzes more than any other DB in the league, makes interceptions and forces fumbles. With Giants CB, Terrell Thomas on IR, he’s the clear #1 CB in IDP leagues. Tramon Williams hasn’t missed a beat since taking over for Al Harris, making 9 interceptions last year on top of his 56 total tackles, which makes his a low-end CB1. At linebacker Desmond Bishop took advantage of injury to Nick Barnett last year to win the starting ILB job and kept it, which gives him LB1 value in tackle-heavy leagues, while Clay Matthews provides the pass-rush. Matthews notched up 17 sacks last year after 11 as a rookie, and is a boom-or-bust LB2. The safety duo of Nick Collins and Morgan Burnett make for solid DB2/3 value.
Big-Play Studs: Charles Woodson (CB), Tramon Williams (CB)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: Charles Woodson (CB), Tramon Williams (CB), Desmond Bishop (LB)
Questions and comments are always welcome via Twitter – @PFF_RossMiles & @JeffRatcliffe.
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