IDP Stock Market looks at IDP players that are being overvalued and undervalued based on our advanced NFL statistics. If you’re looking for the sell-high or buy-low IDP candidates for your fantasy roster, this is the article for you.
Buy:
Lardarius Webb – CB – Baltimore Ravens
Since stepping up to be a fulltime starter this year Lardarius Webb has proved to be a valuable fantasy asset as well as one of our top graded cornerbacks. Webb posted double digit tackles in both weeks 1 and 2, then an interception in the last two games, one of which he returned for a touchdown making him the #1 CB in the PFF IDP scoring system. His actual level of play has mirrored his fantasy production as he has graded over +2.0 in three games, +7.0 overall and allowed 19/32 (59.4%) of passes completed for no TDs. He is only owned in 40% of ESPN leagues, so if he is available, pick him up.
George Wilson – S – Buffalo Bills
George Wilson was a sleeper for more experienced IDP owners who will remember 2009 season that saw him post high-end DB2 numbers and a +12.7 grade before being benched for Donte Whitner in 2010. So far he has two interceptions, a forced fumble and 29 total tackles (24 solo) making him the #2 safety in our scoring system after the first four games. There is no reason to believe Wilson cannot continue to put up DB1 numbers and he should surpass his 79 total tackles (62 solo), 4 INT and 2 sack season from ’09.
Hold:
Donald Butler – LB – San Diego Chargers
Another pre-season sleeper, Donald Butler saw his stock hit a high after week 2 as an everydown linebacker, but the past two games have seen him leave the field on nickel downs. Butler has only been on the field for 59.6% of snaps which limits his potential to accrue tackles so is no longer more than a LB3 until he can get back on the field for more snaps. That being said, only in his second season in the NFL dynasty owners should certainly not cut him as he is showing the ability to be a reliable ILB (+4.9, our #12 graded ILB) and redraft owners can hope he can regain his fulltime starter spot while he is a flex starter.
Sell:
Ray Edwards – DE – Atlanta Falcons
Billed as one of the pieces that would help push the Falcons talented roster towards the SuperBowl, Ray Edwards has not delivered so far in 2011. Edwards has yet to record a sack, only has 1 hit and 8 pressures as well as a -3.1 overall grade despite playing across from John Abraham. Compounding the problem is the play of Kroy Biermann who is used in rotation and is playing better than Edwards, as he has 1 sack, 3 hits and 6 pressures. Edwards could find himself losing more snaps if he doesn’t become more productive, so be wary from making him an instant starter each week.
Patrick Willis – LB – San Francisco 49ers
Listing Patrick Willis as a ‘sell’ is not a reflection on him playing poorly, but rather the excellent play of NaVarro Bowman. Willis is still an LB1 because although he’ll lose tackles to Bowman, he is still a dynamic playmaker, but isn’t a top 3 lock as he was drafted. If you can flip Willis in a trade and get top value then I’d say pull the trigger, and it is in fact a move I have made myself in dynasty league last week. It's simply a case of selling an asset at it's peak value.
Questions and comments are welcome – @PFF_RossMiles
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