IDP Stock Market looks at IDP players that are being overvalued and undervalued based on our advanced NFL statistics. If you’re looking for the sell-high or buy-low IDP candidates for your fantasy roster, this is the article for you.
Buy:
K.J Wright – LB – Seattle Seahawks
After two sacks in his past two games K.J Wright has started getting more notice in fantasy leagues, and deservedly so. Wright has started 11 games this season, grading +9.3 and ranking 13th among 4-3 OLBs. In fact it was the solid play of the fourth round rookie that led the Pete Carroll to trade Aaron Curry to the Raiders. The limiting factor to his value at the minute is that he is not getting on the field in the nickel package because he is still getting to grips with dropping into coverage (+0.1). When he saw an increase in snaps in week 12 (62/73) Wright turned in his second worst game of the year against the pass (-0.6), but as a rookie you’d expect him to improve. Wright is more of a dynasty stash rather than an ‘immediate plug in and play’, but after an impressive game on Monday Night Football you might want to pick him up sooner rather than later.
Jason Worilds – DE/LB – Pittsburgh Steelers
An injury to LaMarr Woodley and suspension to James Harrison had catapulted Jason Worilds into our fantasy consciousness and he gave us reason to remember him with a two sacks and 7 solo tackle game as a starter last week. Worilds has been on the field for 87.8% of snaps since week 9 (and 74/74 last week) and has now asserted himself as the first in line when either of the two OLB studs cannot play. Seeing as Harrison is now 33 years old, Worilds is a great dynasty add and also is an excellent waiver wire pick up with Harrison expected to miss week 15 for his helmet-to-helmet hit on Colt McCoy. Also, if you are in a league that classifies Jason Worilds as a DE (like ESPN) he has even more value.
Hold:
Rey Maualuga – LB – Cincinnati Bengals
Touted as an LB2 with upside in the preseason, Rey Maualuga was not living up to expectations before missing four games though injury. Since returning from his lateral ankle sprain in week 10 Maualuga has averaged 6.2 tackles a game which shows his consistency, but he was still lacking the big plays needed to elevate him into being an every week fantasy starter. The light may have finally come on for Maualuga as he recorded two forced fumbles in his best game of the season (+3.2) last week in the Bengals narrow loss to the Texans. Although he isn’t the scoring powerhouse we hoped, if he can add a few big plays to his stat sheet each week it will move him from being a LB3 or bye week fill-in firmly into LB2 territory.
Sell:
Carlos Rogers – CB – San Francisco 49ers
Carlos Rogers is a victim of his own success this season. Having a career year, Rogers is grading +10.3, is our 7th ranked CB and also has 5 interceptions. However as more tape gets out there of just how well he is playing, opposing gameplans are targeting him less and less. Over his first 10 games this year he was targeted on average 7.5 times a game, over the last three, only 4 times a game. This is affecting his opportunities to make plays and as a result his tackle numbers are falling. Through weeks 1-11 he averaged 3.2 a game, since, only 1.33. Interceptions in three consecutive weeks earlier in the year were great, but since then he has only one week where he caused a turnover or registered a sack. You have to play the hot hand in the playoffs and it’s time for Rogers to ride your fantasy bench.
Questions and comments are welcome – @PFF_RossMiles
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