IDP Stock Market looks at IDP players that are being overvalued and undervalued based on our advanced NFL statistics. If you’re looking for the sell-high or buy-low IDP candidates for your fantasy roster, this is the article for you.
Buy:
Colin McCarthy – LB – Tennessee Titans
Week 9 saw Colin McCarthy make the first start of his NFL career when he replaced the injured Barrett Ruud in the middle of the Titans defense. Although coach Mike Munchak went on recorded saying Ruud remains the starter on his return, McCarthy showed enough to warrant stashing in dynasty formats. McCarthy played all 69 snaps and graded +2.4, better than any single game performance by Ruud (-11.0) all year, showing he is capable of taking the role when the time comes. With Ruud on a 1 year “prove it and get paid” contract, the rookie McCarthy is in a good position to strongly contend for the starting gig in 2012, if not sooner.
Jeremy Mincey – DE – Jacksonville Jaguars
One player flying under the radar and worth picking up is Jacksonville’s Jeremy Mincey. The 4 year veteran won the starting RDE job in week 10 last year and graded +4.6 over the final 8 games, recording 4 sacks, 4 hits and 13 pressures on top of 21 solo tackles. He resumed his solid form this season and through the first 10 games is our 13th rated 4-3 DE (+10.5) with 4 sacks, 6 hits and 20 pressures with 20 total tackles, good enough to be a high end DE2. In fact Mincey has stepped it up over the last 5 games, getting all 4 of his sacks and a +11.0 rating which makes him an attractive in-form proposition. Mincey is owned in only 2.1% of ESPN leagues, which is far too low so if you need DE depth he should be available.
Hold:
Von Miller – LB – Denver Broncos
If you are a Von Miller owner, congratulations! The 2nd overall pick from this year’s draft class has been simply phenomenal in his rookie season. The level of play from Von Miller is of such a standard that he has a genuine shot at the Pro-Bowl this season and he is actually our highest graded defensive player through 9 weeks (+34.7). Yes, that’s highest graded defensive player. He has notched up a sack in 7 of his 9 games, 8 in total, which is the third best total for linebackers, making him a dependable pass-rusher in the fantasy mould of his 3-4 OLB counterparts. Don’t fall into the trap of trying to cash in Von Miller’s early success and trade him, this guy is the real deal who will be posting double-digit sack seasons for years to come.
Sell:
Kavell Conner – LB – Indianapolis Colts
A bright start to the season saw Kavell Conner record 36 total tackles in a 3 game span from weeks 2-4, but he has failed to deliver since. His performance has dropped to the extent where he has only accumulated 31 total tackles in the following 6 games. With a -10.0 grade, which includes three single game grades of -4.5 or below, it does not seem likely that Conner will be able retain his starting role at a struggling franchise that is clearly going to be rebuilding in the offseason. If Conner is still riding your fantasy bench it’s time to cut him lose.
Questions and comments are welcome – @PFF_RossMiles