Our IDP Rankings (Defensive Linemen, Linebackers, and Defensive Backs) are based upon the PFF Fantasy IDP Scoring System and represent the anticipated value for each player over the remainder of the NFL season. But when looking at things in the short-term, there can be a wide variance in players' values based upon the skill level or strategic propensities of the opponent. With that in mind, I'll be looking at three-week blocks throughout the upcoming season, evaluating which of four relatively equally-ranked IDP players would be the best option to target over the entirety of those three weeks. Horse-trading players in/out via waivers or trade using this strategy can yield huge dividends, especially as the season progresses and opportunities arise to “sell high” and “buy low.”
For the first edition of this feature, I'll take a look at the defensive linemen ranked 8th through 10th: Jason Babin, Justin Smith, and Calais Campbell. All three are relatively equal, but one stands out as a better play for Weeks 1-3…
Jason Babin, Philadelphia Eagles
Week 1 vs. St. Louis Rams
Last season, the Rams' pass protection was quite poor (-31.9), and that was with rookie QB Sam Bradford operating within a relatively limited game plan. As his options increase, Bradford will start holding the ball longer, and it could get ugly in Week One if starting right tackle Jason Smith (-7.6 in pass protection, -16.7 overall) doesn't improve dramatically. Left tackle Roger Saffold will be fully occupied with Trent Cole, and any double-teaming will likely be directed Cole's way, setting up what should be a very interesting – and potentially lucrative – match-up for Babin.
Week 2 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Tyson Clabo was one of the finest right tackles in the NFL last season (+5.0 pass protection, +10.8 overall), and while he'll have his hands full in Week 2 against Babin, the real match-up to watch is on the opposite side, where Sam Baker (-11.1 pass, -27.7 overall) will be tested early and often by Cole. The Eagles might decide to get creative, switching Babin and Cole around to challenge the Falcons' imbalanced O-line, but projecting for that is difficult. Instead, one must look at Babin's Week 2 match-up as a tough one for IDP owners.
Week 3 vs. New York Giants
Yet another tough match-up for Babin, this one coming in the form of Kareem McKenzie, PFF's top RT and third-best tackle overall (+23.6 overall, +7.9 pass). Much like in Week 2, the match-up to watch is on the other side, where Cole will be going up against William Beatty. Beatty is taking over for the departed David Diehl (-22.7 overall, -18.4 pass), and while Diehl's 2010 effort was atrocious, Beatty's lack of experience makes the RE/LT match-up one that should be quite concerning for the Giants.
Analysis
In two of the three weeks, Babin draws a very tough match-up. While his long-term value is quite high, a better strategy would be to look elsewhere early on and than try to trade for him when his value is suppressed a bit after Weeks 2 and 3.
Justin Smith, San Francisco 49ers
Week 1 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Offseason addition Robert Gallery (-5.8 overall, -5.6 pass) will be tasked with shutting down Smith, who was far and away the finest 3-4 DE in the NFL in 2011 (+44.9 overall, +19.8 pass rush). Last season, Smith played quite well against Gallery in their one meeting, and with the inexperienced Tarvaris Jackson adjusting to an almost entirely new offense (WR Sidney Rice joins him from Minnesota), coverage sacks are likely to be forthcoming.
Week 2 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Seventh round pick Bill Nagy is slated to start at left guard for the Cowboys, and while his long-term prospects might be good, he's unlikely to enjoy his Week 2 match-up against Smith. Look for the 49ers' DE to wreak havoc on Nagy, forcing LT Doug Free (and potentially TEs Jason Witten and/or John Phillips) to help out on the left side. 3-4 DEs aren't typically high-reward plays, but Smith gets two plum match-ups to start off 2011 and should be targeted accordingly.
Week 3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
With starting RG Bobbie Williams (+15.2 overall, +13.0 pass) suspended for four games, Nate Livings (-7.6 overall, -11.1 pass) will be taking his spot for Weeks 1-4. And with Mike McGlinn (-6.0 overall, -6.4 pass) and rookie fourth round pick Clint Boling the other options, it's shaping up to be a third consecutive favorable match-up for Smith.
Analysis
The way has been paved for Smith to get off to a red-hot start with three easy match-ups, and IDP owners should operate accordingly, targeting Smith in all leagues and perhaps looking to “sell high” after he gets off to an unsustainably strong start.
Calais Campbell, Arizona Cardinals
Week 1 vs. Carolina Panthers
Effectively the left defensive end in the Cardinals' 3-4 scheme, Campbell will be lining up against Mackenzy Bernadeau (-10.5 overall, -8.2 pass). That, combined with rookie QB Cam Newton lining up under center, sets up what should be a very enticing match-up for Campbell. The Panthers will likely be inclined to run more often, giving Campbell more tackle opportunities than normal, and when they pass Newton will be an inexperienced target spending much of the afternoon running for his life.
Week 2 vs. Washington Redskins
Chris Chester (+3.9 overall, +1.5 pass) relocated from Baltimore to Washington in the offseason, and will likely be tasked with shutting down Campbell. Chester's play has been on an upward trajectory, and he'll provide some much-needed stability on the ‘Skins' line. How anticipated starting QB Rex Grossman will fare is a matter for debate, but this represents a reasonably tough match-up for Campbell regardless.
Week 3 vs. Seattle Seahawks
While Smith will be facing the experienced Gallery in Week 1, Campbell will get to take on rookie third round pick John Moffitt in Week 3. Assuming Moffitt holds the starting job, it should be a very favorable match-up for Campbell, who's quietly emerged as one of the NFL's finest defensive linemen. At 6'8″ and 310 pounds, Campbell is in a different league than anything Moffitt saw while playing at Wisconsin.
Analysis
Campbell has what should be two easy match-ups and one challenging one, leaving him in better shape than Babin but worse than Smith. Campbell is a solid play, but if choosing between these three DEs, Smith is the best bet early on.
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