Fantasy: IDP Bets for Breakout - Prince Amukamara

I’ve looked at several IDPs over my last few articles, as I’m looking at the defensive players that will have an impact in IDP leagues for this coming 2012 season. I’ve looked at 4 linebackers and two defensive backs, who I think are going to have breakout seasons for those that draft them. Now, I’m not so naive to call them sleepers, though. There’s a trove of information available at one’s fingertips, so there’s no such thing as a sleeper. With this piece, I look at a corner, that due to unfortunate circumstances, has a chance to contribute significantly; New York Giant CB, Prince Amukamara.

The former Cornhusker, Amukamara entered the 2011 draft considered the second best corner behind Patrick Peterson. Prince finished his senior year with a plethora of honors (including First-Team All-American and the 2010 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year). He showed lock-down talent, with 13 defended passes, allowing 18 caches on 52 targets and 59 tackles (36 solos). Although he didn’t record an INT, he did shut-down half of the field, resulting in Nebraska being a top 5 pass defense. If it weren’t for Peterson, Amakumara would’ve been the top corner in the draft.

2011 Season

Amaukamara was drafted 19th overall by the Giants, which from an IDP standpoint, wasn’t an ideal situation with Terrell Thomas and Corey Webster already established as starters. However, at 19th overall, he was going to see significant snaps and was considered a top corner right away. Unfortunately, injury beset the rookie as he fractured his foot and required surgery. In addition to that, the Giants, they had lost Thomas for the year to a torn ACL, so it was expected that Prince would be thrown into the fire upon return from his injury.

Prince made his debut in Week 11, and appeared in 33 defensive snaps, grading out a solid +2.9 that week, notching 5 solo tackles, allowing just 2 catches on 6 targets. It went downhill from there, as he was a constant target by opposing QBs, going on a string of allowing 5 straight catches on 5 straight targets. He ended up getting benched against Washington, allowing 4 catches on 6 targets that week. When all was said and done, he finished his rookie year with 144 defensive snaps, 13 tackles and allowed 11 catches on 17 targets with a pick.

2012 Outlook

Amukamara was set to open camp as the No. 3 corner, but the injury bug has bit Terrell Thomas once again and he could miss the season with another torn ACL (his third). Aaron Ross left in free agency to the Jaguars, leaving Prince as the leading candidate to be the starter opposite Webster. He appears to be recovered from his foot injury that hampered his rookie year, so all signs are pointing for a big increase in snaps. Justin Tyron and Jayron Hosley will also get some playing time, but Amukamara should dominate the field. What am I projecting for him in 2012?

He has shut-down abilities, and while I do realize that Prince had a small sample size to work, he did have a 9% tackle/snap efficiency, so extrapolating that over the course of a full season, he should be able to record over 80 tackles and be worth a look in most IDP formats that require CB with upside to be a CB2 in those leagues. In looking at ADP data from the Mocking series that we’ve been conducting through MyFantasyLeague, Amukamara should provide excellent value, as he’s the 18^th CB coming off the board.

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