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Fantasy Football Utilization Report: Latest player trends for Super Bowl 57 DFS and player prop bets

Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates a touchdown catch in the second quarter of the AFC championship NFL game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Jan. 29, 2023, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The Chiefs led 13-6 at halftime. Mandatory Credit: Sam Greene-USA TODAY Sports

Editor's note: This year, PFF collaborated with Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life to bring readers the NFL Fantasy Football Utilization Report.

Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. It is a great way to know who is overperforming (sell high) and underperforming (buy low) based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume.

  • Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
  • Quarterbacks: How involved is each quarterback in the running game and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
  • Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short-yardage and passing downs
  • Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route thresholds
  • Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense
Get access to the full Utilization Report, all the data tables, and team-by-team analysis by subscribing to PFF+

Conference Championship Takeaways

QB JALEN HURTS, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Hurts delivered his second-lowest fantasy point total of the season (14.7) against San Francisco in the NFC championship game. However, the Eagles led for the majority of the game, with the 49ers unable to establish their offense because of the injury to Brock Purdy. Still, the Eagles quarterback registered double-digit rushing attempts (11) for the 10th time in 18 games, one of which found the end zone. 

The third-year signal-caller handles 23% of his team's rushing attempts, the highest rate among QBs in the NFL. He has 831 rushing yards and 15 rushing scores on the season.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS backfield

Isiah Pacheco is the lead rushing option and Jerick McKinnon is the top passing-down option in the Chiefs backfield. However, it is extraordinarily tricky to determine which of the two will get the most playing time.

The Chiefs have had two similar game scripts over the last two weeks, with Andy Reid's squad playing within three points on 65% and 83% of snaps while never trailing by four. Yet, the backfield split has been drastically different: McKinnon dominated 65% of snaps in the first game, but Pacheco led the way at 57% in the second game.

The rookie running back ran a route on a season-high 50% of his team's passing plays in the conference championship game. We could be dealing with a hot-hand approach — both backs are low-end RB2s with RB1 upside.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES backfield

The Eagles ran the ball a whopping 44 times against the 49ers, thanks to a four-plus-point lead on 62% of plays. Kenneth Gainwell beat his season-high from a week ago with a 32% rush share. However, due to blowout conditions, Miles Sanders hardly played in the second half.

Sanders accounted for 56% of the rushing attempts in the first half but played only two snaps in the second half. Sanders remains the lead option, with Gainwell handling passing downs and operating as the closer.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES receivers and tight ends

None of the Eagles’ passing-game options eclipsed 8.0 fantasy points in a game Philadelphia dropped back to pass only seven times in the second half. 

Dallas Goedert led the team with a 25% target share and now has three consecutive outings above 22%. This passing attack remains concentrated across A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Goedert.

Quez Watkins continues to share playing time with Zach Pascal in what we can now consider a trend. Watkins hasn’t reached a 60% route participation rate in the last three games.

WR MARQUEZ VALDES-SCANTLING, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Valdes-Scantling delivered a season-high 23.6 fantasy points on just a 20% target share on conference championship weekend. However, the veteran WR ran a route on just 79% of passing plays despite the Chiefs playing short-handed. 

We could see a similar situation with the WR room in the Super Bowl, and the Chiefs could need Valdes-Scantling to step up in a big way. However, his 13% target share and 1.31 YPRR are WR6 material.

WR SKYY MOORE, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Moore registered his best route participation rate of the season (60%), with multiple Kansas City WRs leaving the game due to injury in the championship game. 

The rookie’s 20% TPRR is superior to Marquez Valdes-Scantling (14%) and Justin Watson (11%). If multiple WRs can’t go for the Super Bowl, Moore could be the No. 2 target behind Travis Kelce.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS | PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Kansas City Chiefs

Team ranks
Scoring Drive % TD Drive % Plays (Non-OT) Dropback (Non-OT) Rush (Non-OT) Plays per Minute Neutral Play Clock Time of Possession Trail Pass Close Pass Lead Pass
1 2 13 6 32 13 13 10 4 3 1

Pass-volume environment: Good

Run-volume environment: Poor

Despite Patrick Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain, the Chiefs stayed true to their pass-heavy ways in the conference championship game. They opted to pass 72% of plays with the score within three points, slightly above their season-long average of 69%.

Kansas City ranks No. 2 in neutral-first-down pass rate (61%) and passes inside the five-yard line (67%). In addition, no team avoids long-down-and-distance situations more than the Chiefs at 7.5%.

Quarterbacks
Player Week Pass Att ADOT YPA Play Action Designed Rush Att Scrambles Sacks i5 Att PPR
Patrick Mahomes 17 42 7.6 7.8 16% 7% 7% 0% 0% 24.9
18 26 9.6 7.8 35% 0% 10% 6% 0% 15.0
29 30 6.2 6.5 25% 4% 6% 0% 0% 16.6
30 43 6.6 7.6 14% 0% 6% 6% 0% 21.9
YTD 720 7.6 8.0 23% 4% 6% 4% 4% 24.2

Injury Update: Mahomes produced 327 yards and two passing TDs on a high-ankle sprain against the Bengals. With an additional two weeks to recover, we should see the superstar QB operating at full strength against the NFL’s No. 1 pass defense in yards allowed per attempt.

Rest of season:

  • Patrick Mahomes: high-end QB1
Running backs
Player Week Snaps Rush Att Routes Targets TPRR SDD Snaps i5 Att LDD Snaps 2MIN Snaps PPR
Jerick McKinnon 17 48% 13% 43% 15% 32% 60% 0% 100% 100% 22.6
18 36% 8% 44% 13% 23% 40% 0% 80% 100% 8.6
29 65% 39% 50% 0% 0% 71% 50% 100% 0% 2.5
30 39% 24% 33% 10% 25% 20% 0% 83% 67% 3.8
YTD 47% 20% 48% 11% 19% 48% 26% 89% 85% 10.6
Isiah Pacheco 17 44% 60% 35% 5% 13% 40% 0% 0% 0% 12.9
18 36% 31% 31% 0% 0% 40% 50% 0% 0% 12.4
29 35% 43% 28% 3% 9% 29% 50% 0% 0% 11.1
30 57% 53% 50% 15% 23% 20% 0% 17% 33% 13.5
YTD 32% 45% 22% 3% 11% 26% 35% 6% 8% 8.6
Ronald Jones 17 7% 7% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.3
18 29% 38% 13% 0% 0% 30% 50% 20% 0% 10.5
29 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0
30 3% 6% 0% 0% 0% 40% 0% 0% 0% 0.0
YTD 3% 4% 2% 0% 6% 4% 4% 1% 0% 2.3

Monitoring: Isiah Pacheco is the lead rushing option and Jerick McKinnon is the top passing-down option in the Chiefs backfield. However, it is extraordinarily tricky to determine which of the two will get the most playing time.

The Chiefs have had two similar game scripts over the last two weeks, with Andy Reid's squad playing within three points on 65% and 83% of snaps while never trailing by four. Yet, the backfield split has been drastically different: McKinnon dominated 65% of snaps in the first game, but Pacheco led the way at 57% in the second game.

The rookie running back ran a route on a season-high 50% of his team's passing plays in the conference championship game. We could be dealing with a hot-hand approach — both backs are low-end RB2s with RB1 upside.

Rest of season:

  • Jerick McKinnon: low-end RB2
  • Isiah Pacheco: low-end RB2
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire: low-end RB5 if active
Receivers and tight ends
Player Pos Week Routes TPRR Targets ADOT Air Yards EZ Tgts 3rd/4th Down Targets PA Targets PPR
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR 17 72% 9% 7% 6.3 6% 33% 0% 0% 4.1
18 78% 8% 8% 11.5 10% 0% 0% 50% 5.5
29 88% 6% 6% 12.5 13% 0% 0% 0% 4.9
30 42% 5% 2% 5.0 2% 0% 0% 0% 1.7
YTD 71% 17% 15% 7.2 14% 7% 16% 22% 10.9
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR 17 87% 18% 17% 16.0 36% 33% 29% 14% 4.8
18 72% 27% 25% 16.8 44% 0% 0% 0% 5.7
29 68% 8% 6% 16.0 16% 50% 0% 50% 7.6
30 79% 21% 20% 15.5 46% 33% 45% 13% 23.6
YTD 76% 14% 13% 15.0 26% 20% 17% 17% 8.1
Kadarius Toney WR 17 33% 27% 10% 11.8 15% 0% 0% 25% 11.1
18 22% 33% 8% 0.5 0% 0% 0% 50% 12.4
29 30% 50% 18% 0.3 1% 0% 14% 17% 10.0
30 6% 67% 5% 13.5 10% 0% 9% 0% 1.9
YTD 10% 28% 4% 4.4 2% 0% 2% 29% 6.5
Mecole Hardman WR 17 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0
18 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0
29 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0
30 17% 33% 7% 5.0 6% 0% 9% 0% 3.7
YTD 26% 17% 5% 8.0 6% 7% 8% 14% 10.8
Justin Watson WR 17 35% 13% 5% 21.0 13% 33% 14% 0% 3.7
18 56% 11% 8% 38.0 33% 0% 0% 100% 7.7
29 48% 6% 3% 11.0 6% 0% 14% 0% 2.2
30 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0
YTD 38% 11% 5% 20.0 13% 12% 6% 36% 3.4
Skyy Moore WR 17 24% 36% 10% 2.8 4% 0% 0% 25% 6.3
18 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0
29 15% 33% 6% 4.5 5% 0% 14% 0% 1.3
30 60% 21% 15% 4.3 10% 0% 9% 17% 4.3
YTD 25% 20% 6% 7.9 6% 2% 6% 18% 3.1
Travis Kelce TE 17 89% 25% 24% 5.8 19% 0% 57% 20% 11.3
18 88% 26% 29% 4.3 13% 0% 33% 43% 9.8
29 88% 50% 50% 5.3 46% 50% 57% 29% 35.8
30 87% 21% 22% 7.9 26% 67% 18% 44% 20.9
YTD 84% 26% 26% 7.4 26% 29% 29% 27% 19.6

Injury Update: Kadarius Toney (ankle), JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and Mecole Hardman (pelvis) are all questionable for the Super Bowl after injuries knocked them out of the championship game against the Bengals. All three players were held out of practice last week.

Monitoring: Marquez Valdes-Scantling delivered a season-high 23.6 fantasy points on a 20% target share on conference championship Weekend. The veteran WR still only managed a 79% route participation rate despite the Chiefs playing short-handed. We could see a similar situation with the WR room in the Super Bowl, and the Chiefs could need Valdes-Scantling to step up in a big way. However, his 13% target share and 1.31 YPRR are WR6 material.

Monitoring: Skyy Moore registered his best route participation of the season (60%), with multiple Kansas City WRs leaving the game due to injury in the championship game. The rookie’s 20% TPRR is superior to Valdes-Scantling (14%) and Justin Watson (11%). If multiple WRs can’t go for the Super Bowl, Moore could be the No. 2 target behind Travis Kelce.

Rest of season:

  • Travis Kelce: The TE1
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster: high-end WR3
  • Kadarius Toney: boom-bust WR3
  • Mecole Hardman: boom-bust WR4
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling: WR6, WR3 if Chiefs are without multiple WRs
  • Skyy Moore: upside WR3 if Chiefs are without multiple WRs

Philadelphia Eagles

Team ranks

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