- Pittsburgh and Indianapolis anchor premium play-volume environments: Opposing offenses generated elite volume against the Steelers and Colts last season, averaging over 68 offensive plays per game to naturally boost the fantasy floor of all attached skill-position players.
- Jacksonville and Seattle funnel extreme pass-heavy scripts: The Jaguars and Seahawks paced the league by forcing opponents into distinct positive outliers in passing rates above 66%, cementing both defenses as premium targets for opposing passing attacks.
- Minnesota creates a dramatic run-funnel script discrepancy: Vikings opponents shifted from an outlier pass-heavy approach in 2024 to an outlier run-heavy approach in 2025, despite Minnesota's defensive performance remaining remarkably consistent. The Vikings allowed -0.099 expected points added (EPA) per play in 2024 and -0.092 in 2025. The more significant change came on offense, where Minnesota generated 0.007 EPA per play in 2024 before falling to -0.103 in 2025.
Defensive tendencies can have a significant impact on fantasy football production. Teams that consistently allow opponents to run a high number of plays create more opportunities for fantasy scoring. However, the way those opportunities are distributed can vary considerably. Some defenses encourage run-heavy game plans that concentrate volume among running backs, while others create pass-heavy environments that support multiple fantasy-relevant receivers and tight ends.
The article below examines offensive play volume and run-pass tendencies allowed by each defense over the past three seasons to identify the most favorable fantasy matchups entering 2026.
Plays allowed per game and neutral-game pass-play rate faced
| NFL Defenses | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive Plays Allowed Per Game | 64.40 | 65.38 | 65.95 |
| Pass Play Rate Faced | 60.68% | 60.69% | 61.46% |
Averages from 2023-25
The league-wide pass rate faced has remained largely unchanged over the past two seasons. The more significant development is the disappearance of extreme environments. Fewer defenses are creating unusually pass-heavy or run-heavy game scripts, while offensive play volume continues to trend downward.
Together, those factors reduce the number of fantasy-relevant opportunities available across the league. Star players can still accumulate elite workloads, but there are fewer excess touches and targets available for secondary skill-position players, resulting in a smaller pool of flex-viable options.
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