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Fantasy Football: Top smash plays, upgrades and fades for Week 16

Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) runs with the ball after a catch against the Dallas Cowboys during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Week 16 of the NFL season is here, and so is the weekly look at the top smash, upgrade and fade plays for fantasy football. I'll integrate NFL totals, spreads, implied points and proprietary PFF matchup data each week, looking for players who score highly or poorly across all metrics.

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Rankings & ProjectionsWR/CB Matchup ChartNFL & NCAA Betting DashboardsNFL Player Props toolNFL & NCAA Power Rankings


We will also look at the projected DFS rostership for additional context for building tournament lineups.

KEY:

  • SOS: PFF's Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position.
  • OL Pass Block Advantage (OL PBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup; derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (pass blocking advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).
  • OL Run Block Advantage (OL RBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup; derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (run blocking advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).
  • WR/CB Matchup Advantage (WR/CB MU): wide receiver versus cornerback matchup; derived from the WR/CB Matchup tool (matchup advantage grade — the higher the grade, the better the matchup for the receiver, and vice versa).
  • TE Matchup Advantage (TE MU): tight end versus linebackers and safeties; derived from the TE Matchup tool (matchup advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the tight end, and vice versa).
  • Projected PPR Points (PPR Proj)

QUARTERBACKS

For quarterbacks, we are looking for big point totals and implied points. The spread doesn't matter as much for pass-heavy teams, but we are looking for trailing scripts that could cause run-heavy offenses to throw more than usual.

Smashes
Player Opponent Total Spread Implied Points QB SOS OL PBA PPR
Justin Herbert @HST 45.5 -10.0 27.75 10.0 25 23.9

Herbert and the Chargers are heavy favorites against the Texans, but San Diego opts to pass the third-most when leading (61%). The second-year quarterback has six top-six finishes in the last eight games.

Upgrades
Player Opponent Total Spread Implied Points QB SOS OL PBA PPR
Jalen Hurts NYG 40.5 -9.5 25.00 6.7 19 20.3

Hurts was near 100% on in his return, handling 20% of the Eagles' designed rushing attempts, including two scoring plunges. The Giants offer a good matchup on the ground and through the air.

Fades/Downgrades

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