Fantasy Football: Top smash plays, upgrades and fades for Week 4

Week 4 of the NFL season is here, and so is the weekly look at the top smash, upgrade and fade plays for fantasy football. I'll integrate NFL totals, spreads, implied points and proprietary PFF matchup data each week, looking for players who score highly or poorly across all metrics.

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While the logic below can apply to multiple fantasy games, the primary focus is on season-long leagues. The content doesn't account for rostership in DFS — where you need some contrarian views to take down large tournaments. Many of the plays below will be chalky, which is another data point I leverage for start/sit decisions in season-long formats.

KEY:

• SOS: PFF's Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position.
• OL Pass Block Advantage (OL PBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup; derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (pass blocking advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).
• OL Run Block Advantage (OL RBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup; derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (run blocking advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).
• WR/CB Matchup Advantage (WR/CB MU): wide receiver versus cornerback matchup; derived from the WR/CB Matchup tool (matchup advantage grade — the higher the grade, the better the matchup for the receiver, and vice versa).
• TE Matchup Advantage (TE MU): tight end versus linebackers and safeties; derived from the TE Matchup tool (matchup advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the tight end, and vice versa).

QUARTERBACKS

For quarterbacks, we are looking for big point totals and implied points. The spread doesn't matter as much for pass-heavy teams, but we are looking for trailing scripts that could cause run-heavy offenses to throw more than usual.

Smashes

Allen looks to smash for a second week in a row:

• Allen lands the No. 1 implied point total and the second-best QB SOS.
• The Bills throw the ball in all game scripts — the ninth-most in leading situations — which offsets the heavy-favorite spread.
• The Texans give up the fourth-highest open-target rate on throws of 10 yards or more.

Near Smashes/Upgrades

Mahomes barely missed smash status due to his low QB SOS for Week 4.

• The second-best game total and implied points
• The Eagles are giving up the sixth-most looks on targets of 10 yards or more (10% over the NFL average).
• The Chiefs are creating open looks 12% over the NFL average on targets of 10 yards or more. Big plays are coming.

Brady has three top-four QB finishes to open the season and draws another solid matchup on Sunday night against the Patriots with the sixth-highest game total and fourth-most implied points. Some things in fantasy don't need too much explaining — starting Tom Brady is easy.

Related content for you: Week 4 WR/CB mismatches and shadow coverages to leverage in DFS & fantasy football leagues via Ian Hartitz

Carr has delivered a top-12 fantasy finish in seven out of his last eight games, and the Raiders versus Chargers could shoot out (third-best game total) on Monday night. He is second in the league in passing yards behind Brady and is No. 2 in big-time-throw rate (9%) behind Kyler Murray.

Fades

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