Fantasy Football: Top smash plays, upgrades and fades for Week 4 | Fantasy Football News, Rankings and Projections | PFF

Fantasy News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

Fantasy Football: Top smash plays, upgrades and fades for Week 4

Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) runs with the ball after a catch against the Seattle Seahawks during the first quarter at Bills Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Week 4 of the NFL season is here, and so is the weekly look at the top smash, upgrade and fade plays for fantasy football. I'll integrate NFL totals, spreads, implied points and proprietary PFF matchup data each week, looking for players who score highly or poorly across all metrics.


Click here for more PFF tools:

Rankings & Projections | WR/CB Matchup Chart | NFL & NCAA Betting Dashboards | NFL Player Props tool | NFL & NCAA Power Rankings


While the logic below can apply to multiple fantasy games, the primary focus is on season-long leagues. The content doesn't account for rostership in DFS — where you need some contrarian views to take down large tournaments. Many of the plays below will be chalky, which is another data point I leverage for start/sit decisions in season-long formats.

KEY:

  • SOS: PFF's Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position.
  • OL Pass Block Advantage (OL PBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup; derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (pass blocking advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).
  • OL Run Block Advantage (OL RBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup; derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (run blocking advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).
  • WR/CB Matchup Advantage (WR/CB MU): wide receiver versus cornerback matchup; derived from the WR/CB Matchup tool (matchup advantage grade — the higher the grade, the better the matchup for the receiver, and vice versa).
  • TE Matchup Advantage (TE MU): tight end versus linebackers and safeties; derived from the TE Matchup tool (matchup advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the tight end, and vice versa).

QUARTERBACKS

For quarterbacks, we are looking for big point totals and implied points. The spread doesn't matter as much for pass-heavy teams, but we are looking for trailing scripts that could cause run-heavy offenses to throw more than usual.

Smashes
Player Opponent Total Spread Implied Points QB SOS OL PBA PPR
Josh Allen HST 47.0 -16.0 31.50 6.9 12 24.9

Allen looks to smash for a second week in a row:

  • Allen lands the No. 1 implied point total and the second-best QB SOS.
  • The Bills throw the ball in all game scripts — the ninth-most in leading situations — which offsets the heavy-favorite spread.
  • The Texans give up the fourth-highest open-target rate on throws of 10 yards or more.
Near Smashes/Upgrades
Player Opponent Total Spread Implied Points QB SOS OL PBA PPR
Patrick Mahomes @PHI 54.5 -7.0 30.75 3.1 20 24.1
Tom Brady @NE 49.0 -7.0 28.00 4.9 24 21.6
Derek Carr @LAC 52.5 3.0 24.75 5.5 -18 19.3

Mahomes barely missed smash status due to his low QB SOS for Week 4.

  • The second-best game total and implied points
  • The Eagles are giving up the sixth-most looks on targets of 10 yards or more (10% over the NFL average).
  • The Chiefs are creating open looks 12% over the NFL average on targets of 10 yards or more. Big plays are coming.

Brady has three top-four QB finishes to open the season and draws another solid matchup on Sunday night against the Patriots with the sixth-highest game total and fourth-most implied points. Some things in fantasy don't need too much explaining — starting Tom Brady is easy.

Related content for you: Week 4 WR/CB mismatches and shadow coverages to leverage in DFS & fantasy football leagues via Ian Hartitz

Carr has delivered a top-12 fantasy finish in seven out of his last eight games, and the Raiders versus Chargers could shoot out (third-best game total) on Monday night. He is second in the league in passing yards behind Brady and is No. 2 in big-time-throw rate (9%) behind Kyler Murray.

Fades

Subscribe to PFF Edge to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Tackle Lifes financial Challenges. Western Southern Financial Group.
Sponsor

Fantasy Featured Tools

  • Sort projected player stats and fantasy points by position, week, and category.

    Available with

    Edge
  • Available with

    Edge
  • PFF's Fantasy Football Expected Points tool is primarily used for identifying potential over and undervalued players.

    Available with

    Elite
  • Research past fantasy performance with sortable player stats including PFF-exclusives like aDOT and fantasy points per opportunity.

    Available with

    Edge
  • PFF’s Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position.

    Available with

    Edge
Pro Subscriptions

Unlock NFL Player Grades, Fantasy & NFL Draft

$9.99 / mo
$39.99 / yr

Unlock Premium Stats, PFF Greenline & DFS

$34.99 / mo
$199.99 / yr