Fantasy Football: Top smash plays, upgrades and fades for Week 9

Week 9 of the NFL season is here, and so is the weekly look at the top smash, upgrade and fade plays for fantasy football. I'll integrate NFL totals, spreads, implied points and proprietary PFF matchup data each week, looking for players who score highly or poorly across all metrics.

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We will also look at the projected DFS rostership for additional context for building tournament lineups.

KEY:

• SOS: PFF's Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position.
• OL Pass Block Advantage (OL PBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup; derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (pass blocking advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).
• OL Run Block Advantage (OL RBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup; derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (run blocking advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).
• WR/CB Matchup Advantage (WR/CB MU): wide receiver versus cornerback matchup; derived from the WR/CB Matchup tool (matchup advantage grade — the higher the grade, the better the matchup for the receiver, and vice versa).
• TE Matchup Advantage (TE MU): tight end versus linebackers and safeties; derived from the TE Matchup tool (matchup advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the tight end, and vice versa).
• Projected PPR Points (PPR Proj)

QUARTERBACKS

For quarterbacks, we are looking for big point totals and implied points. The spread doesn't matter as much for pass-heavy teams, but we are looking for trailing scripts that could cause run-heavy offenses to throw more than usual.

Smashes

Allen lands smash status despite Buffalo's two-touchdown-favorite status against the Jaguars. The Bills are willing to throw the ball in all game scripts. As a result, Allen has three top-four finishes in five games where Buffalo hasn't trailed by four or more.

• Scoring Environment: fourth-highest game total and the No. 1 implied points
• Matchups: second-best QB SOS and third-best OL PBA

Upgrades

Stafford has the second-highest explosive-play rate of all passers at 20.9% (minimum 200 attempts), and the Rams throw the ball the sixth-most (63%) inside the five. Thanks to these developments, Stafford can put up huge numbers even when the team runs more in leading game scripts.

• Scoring Environment: the No. 1 game total and second-most implied points
• Matchups: 13th-highest QB SOS and second-best OL PBA

Hill returned to practice on Wednesday but may not get the start this weekend. However, if he gets the starting nod, he is in a choice spot thanks to plus matchups in the passing and rushing departments. The Saints were already a run-heavy team and could now be the NFL's most run-heavy unit.

• Scoring Environment: third-worst game total and ninth-best implied points
• Matchups: eighth-highest QB SOS and the No. 1 OL PBA; seventh-best RB SOS

Tagovailoa and the pass-happy Dolphins land in a get-right spot against the Houston Texans.

• Scoring Environment: below-average game total and top-eight implied points
• Matchups: top-five QB SOS

Fades

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