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Fantasy Football: Starts and DFS picks ahead of Super Bowl 57

East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders (26) celebrates with quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) after scoring a touchdown against the New York Giants during the fourth quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tom Horak-USA TODAY Sports

  • Miles Sanders set to thrive: The Philadelphia Eagles RB is fully healthy and ready to take advantage of the team's run-blocking advantage over the Kansas City Chiefs‘ front seven.
  • Kadarius Toney could be Chiefs most productive WR: The explosive receiver could generate some serious points for DFS managers due to his ability to create yards after the catch.
Estimated reading time: 11 minutes

RB Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles ($7,800 Flex/$11,700 Captain on DraftKings)

  • Philadelphia is implied to score 26.0 points as -1.5-point Super Bowl LVII favorites at BetMGM.
  • PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Philadelphia a dominant 35.0% run-blocking matchup advantage rating. 
  • Kansas City is allowing a 41.0% touchdown-conversion rate on opponent rushing attempts inside Kansas City’s five-yard line.
  • Philadelphia is converting 47.0% of rushing attempts inside the opponent’s five-yard line.
  • Sanders’ DraftKings salaries are both the sixth-highest overall. 
  • Sanders offers reasonable affordability, which will be exploited by sharp players. The masses may be fearful of his recently reduced workload.
  • The Penn State product (73.6 PFF offense grade) appeared on the Week 17 and Week 18 injury reports due to a knee injury. The team has since significantly reduced Sanders’ second-half playing time whenever possible in an effort to preserve his health for Super Bowl LVII.
  • The table below shows the Philadelphia backfield’s second-half usage rates in Weeks 1-16 and Week 17-NFC Conference Championship (NFCCC). 
Philadelphia Eagles 2nd-Half RB Usage Snaps: Weeks 1-16 Snaps: Weeks 17-NFCCC Rush Att.: Weeks 1-16 Rush Att.: Weeks 17-NFCCC Rec. Snaps: Weeks 1-16 Rec. Snaps: Weeks 17-NFCCC
Miles Sanders 61.4% 26.5% 69.5% 31.0% 57.0% 24.0%
Kenneth Gainwell 23.9% 37.9% 13.7% 41.4% 30.7% 32.0%
Boston Scott 14.5% 35.6% 16.2% 27.6% 12.3% 44.0%
  • Sanders’ 137 second-half rushing attempts in Weeks 1-16 ranked third among NFL running backs. His drop in usage is substantial.
  • With two weeks to receive treatment, Sanders should be his healthiest since Week 16. Expect a return to his high-volume, highly efficient rushing productivity.
  • The table below ranks (in parentheses) Sanders’ 2022-2023 rushing data among 45 NFL running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts.
NFL RB Rushing Data PFF Rushing Grade Yards per Rush Att. Missed Tackles Forced per Rush Att. Yards After Contact per Rush Att. Explosive 10+-Yard Rushing Plays
Miles Sanders 81.6 (No. 20) 4.9 (No. 12) 0.18 (T-No. 22) 3.0 (No. 22) 39 (No. 3)
  • Sanders’ 34 regular-season explosive rushing plays ranked No. 4 among qualifying running backs.
  • Sanders is an inefficient passing-game asset, but his 77.8% catch rate offers points-per-reception scoring potential.
  • Among NFL front-seven defenders with at least 100 run-defense snaps, Kansas City has just three players who rank inside the top 32 at their respective position in run-stop rate — linebacker Nick Bolton (8.0% run-stop rate, tied for No. 26 among 95 qualifying linebackers), edge rusher Carlos Dunlap (9.1% run-stop rate, No. 13 among 122 qualifying edge rushers) and defensive tackle Khalen Saunders (8.8% run-stop rate, tied for No. 22 among 142 qualifying defensive tackles).
  • The table below ranks in parentheses Kansas City’s run-defense data among NFL teams.
NFL Team Run-Defense Data PFF Run-Defense Grade Stops Tackles For No Gain or Loss Missed Tackles Avg. Depth of Tackle Positively Graded Run Play % Negatively Graded Run Play %
Kansas City 62.4 (No. 18) 213 (No. 30) 59 (No. 29) 68 (No. 14) 4.37 (No. 23) 57.9% (No. 25) 56.4% (No. 11)

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