PrizePicks describes itself as DFS made easy: Choose two or more players from the board and whether they go OVER or UNDER their projected fantasy score or single stat. The payout increases with each leg added, similar to a parlay bet.
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For the 2021 season, PFF has tasked two of its analysts to go toe-to-toe each week on PrizePicks. Their task? They have to make their favorite player prop parlay bets. The loser goes home empty-handed and will donate to the winner’s charity of choice. Records will be updated each week, with both hopefully showing how to return a profit throughout the season. Honors are even at one win apiece as we head into Week 3.
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CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE UNDER 54.5 RUSHING YARDS
The sky is falling on Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The second-year running back ranks last in PFF rushing grade (46.2) and has yet to eclipse 50 rushing yards this season. To make matters worse, he lost a fumble that cost the Kansas City Chiefs the game in Week 2.
CEH is not a featured part of the Chiefs offense, and the ankle injury he suffered in the preseason may be playing a part in his ineffectiveness. And although Los Angeles' defense hardly ever puts eight or more defenders in the box, CEH still faces an uphill battle to hit his rushing prop. In all, 22 of CEH’s 27 carries have already come against light boxes. The result? PFF’s second-worst rushing grade in those situations (47.0).
AUSTIN EKELER OVER 53.5 RUSHING YARDS
PFF’s Dwain McFarland recently pointed out that Austin Ekeler is seeing nearly 50% of this team’s rushing attempts, which puts him into an elite tier of running backs. The pass-catching savant has already hit 54-plus yards in both of his games this season while averaging just 12 carries per game. Considering Kansas City has allowed the third-most rushing yards (5.7 yards per carry) to running backs this season, Ekeler has the 53.5-yard prop over signed, sealed and delivered.
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JUSTIN FIELDS OVER 44.5 RUSHING YARDS
This play might be a bit overzealous, as PFF’s fantasy projections peg Fields for 34.5 rushing yards Sunday, but there are reasons for optimism.
First of all, Fields scrambled to avoid the pass rush on 20% of dropbacks and took two sacks against the Bengals in Week 2. In total, 30% of Fields’ dropbacks ended with the opportunity for him to gain positive yards to count toward the rushing total or get sacked. Add in the six designed rush attempts, and that works out to a 27.3% team rushing share when Fields took over at quarterback.
Prior data projects a floor of eight for total rushing attempts for the rookie quarterback, while the current game odds also paint a positive outlook for him to see increased touches. Bookmakers have dropped the hook, pushing this spread down to a touchdown differential, with the market invigorated by Justin Fields' elevation to the starting role. It’s probably a little late to back the Bears on the spread, but if you expect them to keep it close, then Justin Fields to go over this rushing total is one of the easiest ways that narrative plays out.
KYLE PITTS UNDER 5 RECEPTIONS
The Falcons are still finding new ways not to cover and are a disaster to start 2021. The offense looks inept, with Arthur Smith’s scheme uninspiring to start. It’s difficult to project things to immediately turn around, with PFF’s betting models showing value on the under 47.5 total.
Pitts’ on-field usage has been excellent, with an overall snap rate of 73.8% while running a route on 80.2% of dropbacks. However, Pitts' 14.6% team target share is the concern, especially on an inefficient offense.
Bookmakers have posted the rookie tight end's reception prop at 4.5, making PrizePicks the perfect location to take the under. Given the value add on five and the expectation that the Falcons remain the Falcons, Kyle Pitts to go under is the perfect PrizePick.