Happy Week 4! We have at least 180 minutes of film and metrics on all 32 teams, so opinions and rankings need to be adjusted accordingly.
What follows are my Week 4 QB rankings. Note that these are not season-long lists or projections; I’m purely ranking based on who I believe will score more fantasy points this week with a focus on 1) What the QB has achieved in recent weeks, 2) Injuries or workload changes that could impact their production, and 3) This week’s matchup. Note that the salary included in “DFS Note” sections refers to their Sunday main slate price at DraftKings.
1. BALTIMORE RAVENS QB LAMAR JACKSON AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (BAL -13.5, 52)
Through three weeks Jackson has actually managed to function as a more efficient passer despite an expected dropoff in TD rate. We don’t need to overthink this one; Jackson is the easy pick for overall QB1 honors thanks to his sky-high rushing floor and status as a two-TD favorite against a defense that dominated in Week 1 but has showed a worrisome inability to stop the run in consecutive weeks against the likes of Kyler Murray (8-67-2), Kenyan Drake (20-86-0) and Nick Chubb (19-108-2) alike.
DFS Note: Jackson is plenty worthy of cash-game consideration per usual thanks to 1) his aforementioned absurd rushing floor, and 2) fantasy-friendly condensed target share between TE Mark Andrews and WR Marquise Brown.
2. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS QB RUSSELL WILSON AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (SEA -6.5, 54)
The Seahawks continue to let Russ cook and it is glorious. The things he’s done through three weeks are nothing short of absurd:
- Nobody has been more deadly throwing downfield: Russ ranks first in yards per attempt (17.6), second in catchable deep-ball rate (79%) and first in TDs on (seven) on passes thrown at least 10 yards in the air.
- 14:1 TD:INT ratio might as well be 15:0 considering 1) D.K. Metcalf Leon Lett-ed a walk-in long score, and 2) Wilson’s interception went directly off TE Greg Olsen’s hands.
- The early MVP frontrunner has zero turnover-worthy plays on 122 dropbacks.
Wilson is as matchup-proof as any QB in the league, and his newfound pass-game workload leaves the Seahawks with the league’s No. 2 scoring offense through three weeks of action. Continue to fire up Russ as a high-end QB1 against a Dolphins secondary that could struggle to hang with these receivers if No. 1 CB Byron Jones (groin) isn’t healthy.
DFS Note: Wilson’s ($7,800) blistering start figures to earn him high-end ownership, although the metric tends to be flatter at the position than most. At some point we’re going to see this passing TD rate regress, but a date against a Dolphins defense that has really only looked decent against a D.J. Chark-less Jaguars offense doesn’t really seem like the unit to slow down Mr. Unlimited.