Happy Week 13!
Twelve weeks of football are in the books. Madness. Only the Panthers and Buccaneers are on bye this week, but injuries have unfortunately continued to take a toll on offenses around the league. Focusing on the long-term view is usually the right move in most walks of life, but it’s also important in fantasy football land to not be afraid to attack each week as its own mini one-game season.
What follows are my Week 13 QB rankings. Note that these are not season-long lists or projections; I’m purely ranking based on who I believe will score more fantasy points this week with a focus on 1) What the QB has achieved in recent weeks, 2) Injuries or workload changes that could impact their production, and 3) This week’s matchup.
1. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS QB PATRICK MAHOMES VS. DENVER BRONCOS (KC -13, 48)
Mahomes is playing some of the best football of his career and is doing so in style. Overall, he already has more big-time throws in 2020 (32) than he did in 2019 (31) despite playing in three fewer games thus far. Mahomes’ 91.4 PFF passing grade is just a hair off his 92.8 mark from 2018. In fantasy land Mahomes has truly taken his game to another level, as his average of 26.5 fantasy points per game is the fourth-highest mark ever and ahead of what we saw in 2018 (26.1).
Up next is a Broncos defense that has actually made Mahomes look at least somewhat mortal over the years.
- 2017, Week 17: 284 pass yards-0 TD-1 INT
- 2018, Week 4: 304-1-0
- 2018, Week 8: 303-4-1
- 2019, Week 7: 76-1-0 (injured)
- 2019, Week 15: 340-2-1
- 2020, Week 7: 200-1-0
Whatever. You know what to do: fire up Mahomes as the top overall option at the position. He’s the most matchup-proof QB we’ve ever seen and seemingly incapable of having a truly bad game.
2. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS QB RUSSELL WILSON VS. NEW YORK GIANTS (SEA -7.5, 48.5)
Wilson was struggle bussing for a bit prior to Week 11, but he’s rebounded with some solid and efficient performances ever since. Even if he’s not throwing quite as much as we saw back in September and October, we’ve seen Wilson lean on his legs more than he has in years:
- 2012: 30.6 rush yards per game
- 2013: 33.7
- 2014: 53.1
- 2015: 34.6
- 2016: 16.2
- 2017: 36.6
- 2018: 23.5
- 2019: 21.4
- 2020: 36.7 (pre-MNF)
Wilson already had more rushing yards prior to Week 12 in 2020 (367) than he did in 2019 (342) as a whole. This sort of rushing floor is a godsend in fantasy land, locking in Wilson as a top-three option at the position despite a non-perfect matchup against the Giants’ sixth-ranked defense in fewest fantasy points per game allowed to opposing QBs.
3. GREEN BAY PACKERS QB AARON RODGERS VS. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (GB -6.5, 48.5)
Yes, Rodgers was awful against the Buccaneers in Week 6. Also yes, he’s largely been nothing short of spectacular as a real-life and fantasy asset in literally every other week.
- Week 1: 364 pass yards-4 TD-0 INT, QB3 in fantasy points
- Week 2: 240-2-0, QB16
- Week 3: 283-3-0, QB7
- Week 4: 327-4-0, QB3
- Week 6: 160-0-2, QB27
- Week 7: 283-4-0, QB8
- Week 8: 291-3-0, QB4
- Week 9: 305-4-0, QB5
- Week 10: 325-2-1, QB4
- Week 11: 311-3-1, QB6
- Week 12: 211-4-0, QB4 (pre-MNF)
One potential reason for Rodgers’ consistent success could be his willingness to work more inside of the Packers’ scheme. Overall, his average of 2.7 seconds from snap to attempt is easily the lowest mark of his career, and he’s thrown to his first read on 63% of his throws compared to 58% a season ago.
Rodgers is fantasy’s QB5 through 12 weeks of action just one year removed from finishing as the QB14 in fantasy points per game. Don’t expect this revenge tour to lose much steam ahead of a tough home date against an Eagles defense that has only allowed the 49ers to surpass 300 passing yards in a game this season. It’s pretty much impossible to doubt Rodgers and company at the level they’re currently operating.