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NFL Week 11 DFS Cheat Sheet: Five recommended plays for all contests

Baltimore Ravens running back Kenyan Drake (17) scores a touchdown against the New York Giants in the first half at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022. Nfl Ny Giants Vs Ravens

Baltimore Ravens RB Kenyan Drake: Drake (65.2 PFF offense grade) is a sneaky, high-upside GPP candidate against the Carolina Panthers.

Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields: Fields (68.7 PFF offense grade) is in a smash spot against the Atlanta Falcons defense.

Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb: Lamb (80.7 PFF receiving grade) is the No. 1 wide receiver chalk play against Minnesota Vikings slot cornerback Chandon Sullivan (47.7 PFF coverage grade).

Estimated Reading Time: 9 mins

NFL Week 11 action is here. Here are five recommended plays to help you win big in DraftKings GPP and cash game competitions.


RB KENYAN DRAKE, BALTIMORE RAVENS ($5,900 ON DRAFTKINGS) VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS

  • Baltimore sits as 13.0-point home favorites with a 27.25-point implied team total.
  • The massive spread indicates an enormous rushing workload for the Ravens in a dreamy matchup.
  • The table below ranks Carolina’s run defense statistics among NFL teams. “No. 1” represents the best defensive performance. 
NFL Run Defense PFF Run-Defense Grade Missed Tackles in Run Def. – Avg. Depth of Tackle Negatively Graded Play % Rush TD Conversion % Inside Own 5
Carolina Panthers 65.5 (No. 9) 50 (No. 26) – 4.62 57.9% (No. 11) 47.0% (T-No. 26)
  • Data from the right-side column comes from PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart.
  • Starting defensive tackle Matt Ioannidis (calf, 62.9 PFF run-defense grade) is questionable to play, as is rotational defensive tackle Daviyon Nixon (illness, 63.6 PFF run-defense grade) after logging back-to-back Did Not Participate practice designations.
  • The current Sunday forecast at M&T Bank Stadium sits at 26 degrees with sustained 21 mph winds, reinforced by gusts up to 41 mph. 
  • Per Scott Spratt’s 2018 PFF study, sub-30-degree temperatures bring a -3.1% completion rate drop for NFL quarterbacks. Winds over 10 mph average a -1.8% drop in completion rate, as well. Expect Baltimore to feature the run game even more than normal.
  • Journeyman running back Kenyan Drake (64.2 PFF rushing grade) makes for a high-upside GPP play with his $5,900 DraftKings salary, just 17th-highest at the position, and a 5.6% rostership rate via PFF’s ownership projections, 18th-highest.
  • Fourth-year running back Gus Edwards (82.7 PFF rushing grade) missed Week 9 with a hamstring strain suffered in Week 8 and spent the Week 10 bye rehabilitating. 
  • Per Adam Hutchison’s Injury Index, running backs averaged three games missed due to hamstring strains from 2017-2021. The injury comes with a 14.3% re-injury rate and typically results in a -24.9% dip in fantasy production in their first game back. 
  • Edwards is on track to return a week ahead of schedule after logging Limited Participant (LP) practice designations on Wednesday and Thursday, but him likely playing at less than 100% health is negatively volatile. 
  • Drake should have a fruitful, dual-threat role — regardless of Edwards’ status — as he has been an efficient, if wobbly, rusher since Week 6.
  • The tables below rank Drake’s rushing and receiving data in parentheses among 27 NFL running backs with at least 50 rush attempts and 36 NFL running backs with at least 50 receiving snaps since Week 6. “No. 1” represents the best offensive performance. 

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