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NFL Divisional Round DFS Cheat Sheet: Five recommended plays for all contests

Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) runs for a touchdown during the first half against the Los Angeles Rams at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (91.3 PFF receiving grade): Among 43 NFL pass catchers with at least 500 receiving snaps, Kelce’s 24 missed tackles forced receiving ranks No. 1. 

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (86.2 PFF receiving grade): San Francisco 49ers cornerback Jimmie Ward (70.5 PFF coverage grade) is overmatched versus Lamb.

Buffalo Bills defense/special teams (65.1 PFF pass-rush grade): The Cincinnati Bengals will be without three starting offensive linemen.

Estimated Reading Time: 15 mins

The divisional round of the NFL playoffs has arrived. Here are five recommended plays to help you win big in DraftKings GPP and cash-game competitions.

TE TRAVIS KELCE, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ($7,700 ON DRAFTKINGS) VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

  • Kansas City opened as 8.5-point home favorites versus Jacksonville at BetMGM
  • The game is totaled at a Mount Olympus-like 53 points, and Kansas City is implied to score a mythical 30.75 points. 
  • Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce’s (91.3 PFF receiving grade) $7,700 DraftKings salary is $2,000 higher than the next closest tight end. Kelce’s weekly high floor and high ceiling make him a safe cash-game play every week. Kelce’s high salary may depress his rostership rate, resulting in an infrequent opportunity to employ him as a cash-game differentiator. His sky-high ceiling makes him an anchor play in large-field GPP tournaments.
  • Kansas City’s second-ranked passing offense (88.8 PFF passing grade) should carve up Jacksonville’s 23rd-ranked pass defense (64.0 PFF coverage grade). 
  • The Chiefs' fourth-ranked passing defense (88.2 PFF coverage grade) is no pushover, but their 28th-ranked 73.0% completion rate allowed offers the Jaguars' 13th-ranked passing offense (72.9 PFF passing grade) a chance to keep pace. 
  • PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Kansas City a 27% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, the best matchup advantage rating of the week. 
  • PFF’s TE matchup chart gives Kelce an 81% receiving matchup advantage rating over Jacksonville linebacker Devin Lloyd (37.1 PFF coverage grade).
  • Jacksonville’s intended interior linebacking corps featured fifth-year veteran Foyesade Oluokun (67.1 PFF coverage grade) and first-round rookie Devin Lloyd (37.1 PFF coverage grade). Both players flailed in coverage, but Lloyd’s especially poor performances gave third-round rookie Chad Muma (40.2 PFF coverage grade) a two-game starting streak in Weeks 12 and 13 before Muma suffered an ankle sprain that returned Lloyd to the starting role. 
  • Oluokun’s run-defense (67.7 PFF run-defense grade) prowess helps keep him on the field despite his alligator-arm coverage tactics.
  • Muma has been off the injury report since Week 17. The table below shows Jacksonville’s interior linebacking corps’ average coverage snap counts and PFF coverage grades in Weeks 17-Wild Card.
Jacksonville Jaguars LB Coverage – Weeks 17-WC Average Coverage Snaps per Game PFF Coverage Grade
Foyesade Oluokun 34.3 63.1
Devin Lloyd 24.7 57.1
Chad Muma 17.3 61.6
  • The table below ranks season-long coverage data in parentheses for Oluokun, Lloyd and Muma among 79 linebackers with at least 150 coverage snaps. “No. 1” represents the player, team or unit’s best performance.
NFL LB Coverage Data PFF Coverage Grade Targeted % – Catch % Allowed Yds Allowed/Cov. Snap 15-Plus-Yd Pass Plays Allowed % Open-Target % Missed Tackles
Foyesade Oluokun 67.1 (T-No. 28) 14.0% (T-No. 48) – 83.2% (No. 59) 1.13 (No. 52) 2.2 (T-No. 45) 69.7% (No. 38) 5 (T-No. 38)
Devin Lloyd 37.1 (No. 77) 17.7% (No. 73) – 81.3% (No. 49) 1.44 (No. 73) 2.9% (No. 68) 72.5% (No. 44) 10 (T-No. 75)
Chad Muma 40.2 (No. 75) 13.9% (No. 45) – 81.8% (T-No. 54) 1.16 (T-No. 54) 1.9% (No. 32) 72.7% (No. 45) 2 (T-No. 10)
  • Jacksonville’s linebackers sport a 46.9 unit PFF coverage grade, which ties for 25th. 
  • The table below ranks in parentheses Kelce’s receiving data among 45 tight ends with at least 200 receiving snaps.
NFL TE Receiving Data PFF Receiving Grade Per Routes Run %: Tgts – Yds Catch % – Contested Catch % aDot – YAC/Rec. 15-Plus-Yd Pass Plays Missed Tackles Forced Rec.
Travis Kelce 91.3 (No. 1)  25.0% (No. 3) – 2.23 (No. 1)  73.3% (T-No. 18) – 36.8% (No. 32) 7.6 (No. 25) – 6.0 (No. 8) 32 (No. 1) 24 (No. 1)
  • Among qualifying tight ends, Kelce’s 91.3 PFF receiving grade leads the position by seven grading points, his 2.23 yards per route run leads by 0.26, his 32 explosive pass plays leads by four and his 24 missed tackles forced leads by six.
  • Among 43 NFL pass catchers with at least 500 receiving snaps, Kelce ranks top eight in PFF receiving grade, targets per route run, yards per route run, catch rate, yards after catch per reception and explosive pass plays. He is No. 1 in missed tackles forced as a receiver. 

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