News & Analysis

Monkey Knife Fight AFC-NFC Championship Preview: PFF's picks for player prop contests & games

Bills quarterback Josh Allen celebrates with the crowd after beating the Ravens 17-3 in the AFC divisional playoff game. Jg 011621 Bills 2

Monkey Knife Fight is a daily fantasy sports gaming website that lets you win money on both NFL games and the players who participate in those matchups. It is a unique prop game that plays similar to fantasy football.

There are several contests to choose from, none of which require the hours of research required on other sites. The contest types are fairly straightforward:

Stat Shootout – You will be choosing your team of players from the list that will accumulate the most of the stat type you have chosen to play, such as touchdowns. Then, you choose a target goal for that stat and watch the players score live. If your team exceeds your chosen goal, you win the prize shown prior to entry.

Rapid Fire – You will be selecting your team by choosing the highest-scoring player in multiple head-to-head matchups in statistical categories. They will need to beat the unchosen players in their head-to-head matchups.  If a player gets additional points added to their score in a matchup, they will be shown in green (ex: +14.5). Choose the coinciding posted number of matchups correctly to win the prize shown prior to entry.

More/Less –  You will be drafting your team by choosing More or Less for a group of player statistics presented. You will be squaring off with your own predictions. Choose the coinciding number of tiers correctly to win the prize shown prior to entry.

The payouts on Monkey Knife Fight increase with your risk appetite, start with a simple 2/2 or go for their highest payouts with 8/8 “more-or-less” games. No matter the contest type, all allow the ability to correlate player props into outsized returns.

[Editor's Note: All first-time MKF players that deposit at least $20 into their new account will receive a FREE PFF EDGE subscription if they use promo code PFF. Create your new MKF account and deposit here.]

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

This spread has bounced between -4 and -3 all week, as we have finally settled at -3.5 before kickoff. 70% of the cash and 62% of the tickets have been on Green Bay, which appears to have received all the late week backing after this spread touched -3. The added hook has dried up all of the value according to Greenline, with no viable plays on the spread or moneyline.

This matchup features the top two offenses in terms of our opponent-adjusted grades. The total has actually retraced to the opening number after seeing a brief half-point drop early in the week. Some books have moved up to 51.5, which is the highest number we have seen for this game this week. Greenline had an early week preference on the over but finds no real value at the inflated number. The market direction and cash and ticket percentages pointing towards the over offers some signal for which side we should target in the prop market.

MORE OR LESS 3.5X

Tom Brady OVER (MORE) 280.5 Passing Yards

Aaron Rodgers OVER (MORE) 280.5 Passing Yards

Given the preference for the over, offering More or Less —as opposed to a matchup based game — looks like the appropriate target.

Two of the best to ever play the quarterback position face off with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Expecting both to put up vintage performances doesn’t seem all that far-fetched given the circumstances.

Both defenses sit in the top five of our opponent-adjusted grades, while both offenses are at the top of the league. We should expect an efficient offense to trump high-quality defenses, which shouldn’t change on the biggest stage.

Monkey Knife Fight is actually providing a slight discount to the player prop market, which has Brady six yards higher than this number — and Rodgers’ two yards higher. It’s not a significant difference, but it still provides rare value when targeting overs.

Since Week 6, Brady has had a passing yardage prop under 280.5 just two times and has gone over his prop number in 8 of 13 games. Last week, his prop number of 306.5 was his third-highest of the season, but the Buccaneers heavy early-down run percentage caused him to fall short of this number. The week-to-week adjustment is too significant to not go back for another opportunity, as the Saints’ have a better coverage unit than the Packers.

There is also the game script element, as the betting market has priced a game where the Buccaneers should be battling from behind. This sets up for a reliance on Tom Brady’s passing yards, which should cause him to easily eclipse this modest passing yardage number.

On the other side, Rodgers’ offers the opportunity to correlate Brady’s passing numbers with another quality performance. The Buccaneers have the best defense left in the NFL, but their secondary is made up entirely of third-year or newer defensive backs. Expecting them to slow down the best offense in the NFL within the friendly confines of Lambeau is a tall ask to get to the Super Bowl.

Rodgers has lived close to this 280.5 prop number for the majority of the season, but four of his past five games have gone under, which is causing an adjustment in this line. The Monkey Knife Fight number offers a slight discount from the prop market, which makes this pricing discrepancy something to profit off of. With everything on the line, both should easily eclipse their passing yardage totals — which makes this Monkey Knife Fight game one of the best betting opportunities on Sunday.

BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Things continue to trend in the right direction for Patrick Mahomes’ availability, with the only remaining question related to turf toe.

The spread continues to climb after opening post-concussion at -2.5, up to -3 on the positive news on Mahomes. Cementing his status in the lineup could add the hook to the field goal spread but may not occur, as the Bills are already getting a majority of the cash and ticket percentages.

The unique injury situation has also caused some discrepancies in the total, as it opened at 55 before quickly being bet down to 53. Recently, a slight correction back towards the opening number, now sitting at 54 —despite a majority of the cash and tickets still on the under.

Greenline finds value in both game markets, as there is still some value on the Chiefs if Mahomes is at full capacity. His playmaking ability also adds intrigue to the over 54, which is counter to the market but the side that Greenline prefers. From a player props perspective, it makes targeting overs the path of least resistance, helping us evaluate the best opportunities on Monkey Knife Fight.

RAPID FIRE 3X

Josh Allen +2.5 OVER (MORE) Passing Yards than Patrick Mahomes 

Stefon Diggs OVER (MORE) Receiving Yards than Travis Kelce +2.5

Mahomes’ lingering injury issues cause some difficulties when evaluating his Monkey Knife Fight options. We don’t have the added benefit of comparing to his player prop numbers yet but should see something develop before game time. Less information allows for more opportunity, which provides value for those willing to dig in to find discrepancies.

Outside of the injury situation, there are a number of other reasons to like Allen in this Rapid Fire matchup. The plus price immediately helps, and the sheer passing volume plays a key role.

Buffalo has passed in neutral game script situations at the highest-rate in the NFL and even skewed higher their last two playoff games. If things start similar to last week, Devin Singletary may have multiple targets before his first rushing attempt. That only points one direction for Josh Allen’s passing yards, especially if betting market indication on game script is to be trusted. Fading Mahomes is always scary, but there are numerous occurrences of him having a great game, and Allen still outpacing his passing yardage number.

Stefon Diggs’ yardage is correlated to Allen’s performance, but going against Kelce is scarier than Mahomes. The Bills are in the bottom half of the NFL in opponent-adjusted coverage grade, and their high passing offense creates opportunities for the opposing unit. Their coverage unit improves to 11th when focused solely on defending tight ends in coverage. Kelce’s Week 6 performance against this same Bills defense was his second-lowest receiving yardage total of the 2020 season. There is at least some information to glean from this history despite it not being predictive of what we should expect in this matchup.

The same idea for siding with Allen also plays into the Diggs selection, which is that Kelce could still have a great game that is matched by Diggs. The Bills wideout offers the higher floor given his volume projections and game script, which is why taking the Bills’ pass-catching unit is the correct play on Monkey Knife Fight.

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