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Kremenjas favorite fantasy football picks – my guys

Every fantasy football season offers talented players in preferable situations who stand out as draft values. Honing in on players who we can draft with confidence — either to anchor our squads in the early-rounds or to beat ADP as drafts progress — is key to a winning draft strategy. 

The following list covers many of the players I've found myself repeatedly drafting for 2020 fantasy football leagues. I've included several mid- and late-round picks who are set up to outplay their average draft positions (ADP) and provide tremendous value if things fall their way during the 2020 NFL season.

All ADP info is sourced from BestBall10s drafts dating back to the beginning of August.

Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott | ADP: 69.50 (QB3)

Prescott is no stranger to production — his 350.7 total points finished behind only Lamar Jackson in quarterback scoring in 2019. His 0.55 points per dropback ranked sixth among all quarterbacks. Prescott’s rushing ability (eighth in rushing yards, ninth in rushing touchdowns among all quarterbacks) paired with his nearly elite passing ability (second in passing yards, fourth in passing touchdowns, fifth in yards per attempt and fourth in average depth of target among all quarterbacks with 200-plus pass attempts) combine to build one hell of a quarterback option.

The intrigue doesn’t end there, though, as the Cowboys continue to upgrade the pieces that surround Prescott on the offensive side of the ball — rookie receiver CeeDee Lamb and tight end Blake Jarwin are both major improvements. This collection of weapons could allow Prescott — as well as his new head coach Mike McCarthy — to raise the ceiling yet again.

PFF’s fantasy projections anticipate a QB3 out of Dak, which should come as no surprise given his seventh-ranked schedule, according to PFF’s Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric.

Nov 3, 2019; Oakland, CA, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) reacts after throwing touchdown pass to wide receiver Kenny Golladay (19) against the Oakland Raiders in the second quarter at Oakland Coliseum. Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford | ADP: 120.46 (QB13)

Stafford is no stranger to production. In only eight games last season (Weeks 1-9), Stafford ranked sixth in quarterback scoring (177.6) and seventh in points per dropback (0.55). While his point totals and efficiency were great, it was his real-life numbers that proved to be jaw-dropping: Stafford ranked in the top five in passing yards, passing touchdowns and yards per attempt (YPA); he was first in average depth of target (aDOT) among all quarterbacks with 100-plus pass attempts during Weeks 1-9. In addition to all of those marks, Stafford also attempted the most (56) deep pass attempts (20-plus yards downfield) over the same time frame.

Stafford’s history of production, willingness to attack the deep parts of the field and the Lions’ penchant for throwing are all key factors in Stafford’s continued fantasy relevance. This season should be no different, and PFF’s fantasy projections agree — Stafford currently ranks as the QB14, which nearly aligns perfectly with his current QB13 ADP. 

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger | ADP: 141.17 (QB17)

Dating back to 2014, Big Ben has ranked highly in the seasons he’s been able to remain healthy.

Ben Roethlisberger | 2014-2018
Total fantasy points (Rank) Points per dropback (Rank)
2014 320.2 (6th) 0.49 (8th)
2015 228.4 (21st) 0.46 (17th)
2016 263.3 (17th) 0.50 (9th)
2017 272.7 (10th) 0.46 (17th)
2018 353.0 (3rd) 0.50 (13th)

Over the same time frame, he ranks sixth in pass attempts, fourth in passing yards, fifth in passing touchdowns, second in YPA and eighth in aDOT among all quarterbacks with 1,000-plus passing attempts. Roethlisberger has built a career out of slinging the football, and his point-totals are impressive because of both the volume and his ability to remain efficient.

PFF’s fantasy projections currently anticipate a down year for Roethlisberger, ranking him with a QB29 finish. Another positive for Big Ben is his schedule, which PFF’s SoS metric ranks as the fifth-easiest in 2020.

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