- Jahmyr Gibbs‘ contract talk doesn't change what he is on the field: He is the only running back to average at least 21 PPR points per game in each of the last two seasons.
- The offensive line is the only real reason for pause: The Detroit Lions have made four changes up front in two years, which is worth weighing against a case that is otherwise airtight.
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Jahmyr Gibbs is the only running back to average at least 21 PPR points per game in each of the last two seasons, doing so by averaging over 5.0 yards per carry, scoring double-digit rushing touchdowns, and being the only back with over 500 receiving yards over that span — all behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.
This offseason, Detroit moved on from David Montgomery, whose presence had previously limited Gibbs' ceiling at the goal line. While that impact was less pronounced in 2025, Gibbs could still see an increase in rushing touchdowns with Montgomery gone. And while the Lions added Isiah Pacheco in free agency as a backup, he is unlikely to affect Gibbs' overall volume in a meaningful way.
Detroit also hired former Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing to run the offense. Arizona occasionally deployed a two-back committee under Petzing, but he has also shown a willingness to heavily feature a lead back, as James Conner regularly posted snap shares above 75%. A major shift in Gibbs' usage is not expected.
The competition for touches between Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta and Isaac TeSlaa is a slight negative, but Gibbs dealt with the same group last season and still averaged over 21 points per game. Those same receivers also help Detroit field one of the best offenses in the NFL, contributing to the touchdown opportunities that have defined his production.
The biggest concern is the offensive line. Detroit ranked second in run-blocking grade in both 2023 and 2024 before dropping to 13th last season following the losses of Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler. The Lions made two more changes this offseason, moving on from left tackle Taylor Decker and center Graham Glasgow and replacing them with first-round rookie Blake Miller and fifth-year center Cade Mays. These are roughly lateral moves on paper, but the continued turnover adds uncertainty to an area that has been central to Gibbs' success.
The other concern is his contract situation, as he is currently in the midst of a “hold-in” with Detroit. In the vast majority of cases, though, a player who is holding out or holding in at the start of August is ready to play in Week 1. Fantasy managers shouldn't worry unless a month passes with Gibbs still not practicing and threatening to sit.
Ultimately, some of these changes could prove to be steps forward rather than back, and the other elite running backs in this range carry even more uncertainty heading into 2026. This makes Gibbs the top option in redraft leagues regardless of format.
You can find more statistics and information on his past performance, his competition for touches and how much his teammates and coaches will help or hurt him below.
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