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DraftKings Showdown: Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Monday Night Football

Sep 8, 2019; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) celebrates after throwing a touchdown pass against the Miami Dolphins during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The changing DFS and fantasy football landscape is shifting toward single-game contests. At DraftKings, the biggest is their Showdown Captain Mode format. The format blends the ease of focusing on a single game with the ability to differentiate yourself from the competition by choosing a total of six players.

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The biggest wrinkle of the format is the ability to choose one captain, who costs and is scored at 1.5 times the standard values. The CPT designation opens up another layer of strategy while exponentially increasing the number of possible lineup combinations, which is important for reducing duplicate winners and split prizes. I wrote a primer on playing this format, with details on historical positional trends and salary usage.

This season I’m going to analyze all of the NFL’s “island” games (TNF, SNF and MNF) and playoff matchups, utilizing PFF’s weekly projections, current betting lines and millions of simulated historical combinations to identify who are the best and worst values for an upcoming matchup.

There are five main components to each Showdown slate analysis that you’ll find below:

  • A breakdown of methodology and the most similar historical matchup to Baltimore RavensKansas City Chiefs as an illustration of the matching process: 2016 Week 8 SeahawksSaints, featuring Russell Wilson playing the role of Lamar Jackson and Drew Brees playing the role of Patrick Mahomes.
  • Optimal lineup allocations (CPT and total roster) for both teams based on the results of similar historical matchups.
  • Comparison of player ownership projections for FLEX and CPT produced by a model trained on 2018-2019 Showdown contest results to optimal allocations.
  • Recent CPT ownership trends illustrated for both starting lineups.
  • A table showing the most common players on optimal lineups for each player. This allows you to see which other players are commonly found on the same optimal lineups as a player you’re interested in rostering.

METHODOLOGY

To analyze this specific Showdown slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2019 and found the closest analogies to this matchup according to the following parameters: betting spread, over/under, average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

I won’t detail every matchup that falls into the top 100 for this game, but for illustration, let’s look at the most similar matchup:

Historical Current
Player Pos Team Player Pos Team
Russell Wilson QB SEA Lamar Jackson QB BAL
Christine Michael RB SEA Mark Ingram II RB BAL
Doug Baldwin WR SEA Marquise Brown WR BAL
Jimmy Graham TE SEA Mark Andrews TE BAL
Drew Brees QB NO Patrick Mahomes QB KC
Mark Ingram II RB NO Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB KC
Michael Thomas WR NO Tyreek Hill WR KC
Coby Fleener TE NO Travis Kelce TE KC

The spread and over/under are similar in these matchups (Seahawks -1, 50 O/U versus Ravens -3.5, 54.5 O/U). The players might not be perfect matches, but that’s why we use 100 similar matchups and not just the single most similar.

The optimal roster for that historical matchup, assuming positional salaries equaled what they are for this Showdown slate, would have been:

Player Team Position Roster Position Fantasy Pts
Drew Brees NO QB CPT 20.7
Wil Lutz NO K FLEX 16.0
Brandin Cooks NO WR FLEX 14.4
C.J. Prosise SEA RB FLEX 14.3
Tim Hightower NO RB FLEX 14.2
Michael Thomas NO WR FLEX 12.3

For this game — and 99 other similar matchups — I calculated every possible combination that fits with Showdown rules (one CPT, at least one offensive player from each team) and would fall under the $50K salary threshold assuming the salaries for the similar historical matchups are the same as those for this contest.

CHOOSING THE RIGHT CAPTAIN

The unique part of the format, and therefore the biggest opportunity for competitive advantage, is choosing your CPT. Should you always choose a QB who typically has the highest absolute fantasy scoring? Are defenses and kickers viable options? RB vs. WR?

I went through the millions of possible lineup combinations for the 100 most similar matchups and found who the CPT selections were on the top-five scoring lineups for each matchup. Here are the 500 CPT from those matchups by position rank according to salary.

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