News & Analysis

DFS guide: Week 4 in DraftKings tournaments

By Tyler Buecher
Sep 29, 2017

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OAKLAND, CA - DECEMBER 04: LeSean McCoy #25 of the Buffalo Bills rushes with the ball against the Oakland Raiders during their NFL game at Oakland Alameda Coliseum on December 4, 2016 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

DraftKings did a great job with pricing this week. Without any egregious mispricing of must-play values, this week is shaping up to be one where it could pay off to be a little contrarian. There are a ton of great running backs and wide receivers in prime spots. I’ll subsequently be leaning more heavily in tournament exposure than cash this week as a result. If variance got the best of you like it did to me in Week 3, it’s time to double down on our research and find the best plays of the week to get ourselves back in the green.

(For the DraftKings cash game guide, click here)

Quarterback

In tournaments, we are looking for upside, plain and simple. I think you could make a case for each of the top-12-priced quarterback on the main slate as fitting that criteria.

I mentioned last week in this segment that it would be a shrewd move for paying up for Tom Brady and he went off for 39.7 DK points. I’m going back to the well suggesting Brady again here at home against the Panthers. The Panthers haven’t allowed a ton of raw volume as far as passing yards, but opposing QBs are completing over 70 percent of their passes against them — just one of five defenses to allow that. Dating back to 2014, Brady has averaged 27 FPs at home compared to 24.3 on the road. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in 17 of his last 23 home games (73.9 percent) during that span. Drew Brees just threw three passing touchdowns against the Panthers last week in Carolina; Brady could throw for five in back-to-back games in Foxborough.

Stacking has become a near-necessity if you want to find your name at the top of a GPP leaderboard. Some of my favorite higher-priced quarterbacks to stack this week are Brady, Matt Ryan ($7,400), Drew Brees ($7,200), and Carson Palmer ($6,100).

Paying down at the position to fit some more stud running backs and wide receivers is also a viable option. Andy Dalton ($5,800) fits the bill as opposing quarterbacks have averaged over 20 DK points per game and scored multiple touchdowns in each contest against the Browns. I think this game may be closer than people think. I’m not expecting a massive blowout and neither is Vegas (CIN 3.5-road favorites). That could mean a good number of throws from Dalton in this one.

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