I mentioned last week that I didn’t anticipate playing a ton of volume in cash. Tight pricing by DraftKings and some poor matchups heading into the week led me to play significantly less volume than I had in Week 2 and Week 3. I’m leaning toward repeating that feat this week. The two potential highest-scoring games of the week — KC-WAS (49.5-point game total) and NO-MIA (49) are both off DraftKings’ “new” main slate that no longer features Sunday night. I won’t get into that, but fewer players for our opponents to select means there’s a less likely chance for them to screw up. Pricing is also once again well done by DK this week without many flagrant values jumping off the board as must-plays. However, there’s still an edge to be had if we select our players smartly. Let’s ride the inevitable variance of the NFL season towards finishing in the green in Week 4.
(For the DraftKings tournament guide, click here)
There are a ton of mid-priced quarterback options that make a ton of sense. I’m wrestling with a few of them as of the time of this writing, but leaning toward Carson Palmer ($6,100) as the one taking the early nod for consideration. Palmer is taking on a 49ers defense that ranks top-10 in both fantasy points allowed and touchdowns allowed to opposing quarterbacks through the first three weeks. He’s playing against an incredibly soft secondary that has struggled at every cornerback position. LCB Dontae Johnson is allowing a 137.5 passer rating when being targeted, third-highest in the league. Slot CB K’Waun Williams is allowing the second-most targets among all slot corners. He’s routinely being picked on by opposing quarterbacks. RCB Rashard Robinson is currently our No. 107 graded cornerback out of 110 qualifying. After a slow Week 1, Palmer has averaged 22.3 DK points over the last two weeks. He leads the league in red-zone pass attempts and his team is favored by almost a touchdown at 6.5 points. I’m going to have a hard time passing on him this week.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,300) continues to grow on me the further we get into the week. The Bills are going to have to pass the ball as current eight-point road dogs. The Falcons’ weakness happens to be one of Buffalo’s greatest strengths; receiving running backs have torched Atlanta dating back to last season and it’s no different in 2017. LeSean McCoy has caught 5, 6, and 7 passes to open the season. I’m hoping the streak continues to 8 here in this plus matchup. McCoy has been Taylor’s favorite target so far this season (20 targets), and both make great plays. Taylor has averaged 16 DK points per game to start the year, but his rushing upside gives him immense weekly upside.
I keep finding myself hovering over Trevor Siemian ($5,200) and the potential savings he provides. The Raiders secondary is a mess and both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are in position to go off this off. The two are combining once again for over 50-plus percent of the team’s targets and should excel in this matchup. OAK has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, yielding a 112.0 passer rating to opponents — third-highest rate in the league. The line has continued to push towards Denver’s favor as we get further in the week, and cheap, home favorites should always be in play for us in cash.