As always, in Week 17 the best DFS plays are rarely the ones you’ll see coming this early in the week. Advanced metrics relating to volume, efficiency, or matchup are still important, but less so than late-breaking news related to playing time.
For instance, if on Saturday we get news that the Rams are going to shut down the bulk of their starters, should we consider Blake Bortles in a dream matchup at home and at site-minimum salary? (Probably.) Or, if Kyler Murray gets ruled out, should we instead turn to a minimum-priced Brett Hundley against a Jalen Ramsey-less Rams secondary? Yes, the same Hundley who averages 1.16 rushing yards per dropback over his last six games, which ranks second only to Lamar Jackson. (I think so). Or, if Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards are both inactive Sunday, should we go all-in on Justice Hill? (Probably.) Anyway, hopefully, you get the picture. Use this article as a jumping-off point, but keep an eye on late-breaking news throughout the rest of the weekend and adjust accordingly.
Without further ado, here are some of my top DFS plays for Week 17:
(DK: QB5, FD: QB8)
Tannehill may have entered the season as a backup, but he hasn’t at all played like it, outperforming every quarterback not named Lamar Jackson. He leads all quarterbacks in passer rating (116.5), and ranks second in PFF grade (92.1), fantasy points per start (23.0), and fantasy points per dropback (0.69). In a must-win game for the Titans, against a Texans defense that’s giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and without Lamar Jackson available, it would make more sense if Tannehill was the highest-priced quarterback on the slate, rather than fifth or eighth.
(DK: QB12, FD: QB11)
In a must-win game for the Eagles, against a sieve-like New York Giants secondary, look for Wentz to overcome his banged-up receiving corps. The Giants have given up at least 21.5 fantasy points to quarterbacks in a league-high eight straight games, including a season-high 29.7 fantasy points to the Redskins last week. New York ranks bottom-five in fantasy points allowed per dropback, opposing passer rating, and pressure rate. More importantly, they rank second-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (with quarterbacks exceeding their season-long average by 7.3 fantasy points per game), and worst over their last five games (14.0).