With just two games on tap this weekend, your list of “fades” will be naturally narrow. Some top-level notes:
- The Patriots-Jaguars game is expected to produce roughly eight more total points than the Eagles-Vikings game. That’s notable on such a short slate.
- Keep an eye on injury news, as last-minute value openings (or closings) will be huge.
Below is a list of players I’ll be fading in DFS for the Conference Championship round.
Note: There’s always a case to be made for playing any player in tournaments. This list of “fades” is cash game focused, but most of these players can be avoided in tournaments as well. Keep in mind, however, that they might be good contrarian GPP plays because of their tough matchups and/or other issues making them “fade” candidates.
Don’t do it, folks. This weekend’s quarterbacks are obviously not the best final four we’ve ever seen, but Foles is a cut below even this crew. Foles has scored 0.36 fantasy points per dropback over his five games. On the season as a whole, that would have been good for 34th among quarterbacks. Throw in the fact that the Vikings gave up a league-low 12 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this year, and you have yourself the easiest fade of the weekend.
LeGarrette Blount, Philadelphia Eagles
The Vikings have given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this year, and Blount is the backup in a three-headed backfield. He hasn’t seen more than 10 carries in a game since Week 12, and he’s not some touchdown-scoring machine either. Blount had just two touchdowns in the regular season before adding a third last week. Blount “seems” like a value — particularly on DraftKings at $3,700 — but he’s averaging just 7.0 DraftKings PPG, which equates to less than 2x value on his salary. Even last week, with a touchdown and nine rushing attempts, Blount scored just 7.9 DraftKings points — only 2.1x value on his cheap salary.