The NFL playoffs are here, and the Conference Championship round brings major change to the DFS landscape. With so many fewer teams in action, there are fewer bargain-bin deals to take advantage of. In the NFL playoffs, DFS comes down to exploiting individual matchup and utilizing game theory to your advantage. Now that we have passed the Divisional Round, game theory plays an even bigger role with four fewer teams in play. Below, we will focus on delivering you the best bargains on the Conference Championship slate while factoring in their prices, matchups, and also the probability that they will be owned. A bargain during the NFL playoffs can come from low-ownership players just as easily as low-priced players.
Bortles settled in as a back-end QB1 (and for a four-game stretch he was more) over the final 12-game stretch run of the 2017 season, and through the postseason, with the exception of the Bills game. That’s a large enough sample size for us to believe that Bortles is the best value on the entire slate considering his price tag. The Patriots are the heavy favorites in the two-game slate this weekend and they have a high implied points total, via Vegas’ odds. This scenario plays out similar to what the Titans matched up against last week, where we advised to target Marcus Mariota as a value, and he turned in an excellent fantasy day during the second half. A similar scenario should play out in this game.
Lewis is by no means a bargain from a price standpoint, but it’s the Conference Championship round and we no longer have glaring bargains on the slate. Instead of only bargain-bin buys, we’re searching for the best values and Lewis fits that billing. Even if Rex Burkhead returns to action, that should not take away from Lewis’ role as the early-down runner, occasional red-zone back, and closer. If Vegas is right, then we will be seeing a whole lot of Lewis in the second half of this game and those touches are invaluable on such a short slate. Most importantly, Lewis, role has grown in the passing game with him seeing 10 targets last week. The Lewis play combined volume, explosive play potential (as evidenced by his elusive rating), and a chance to grab a share of the player on a team who will enter this slate with the highest implied points total.