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Fantasy Football: Bold IDP takes for 2022

Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys outside linebacker Micah Parsons (11) in action during the game between the Washington Football Team and the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The 2022 fantasy football season is entering its offseason peak, and with that, there are (too) many bold takes out there flooding Twitter timelines and causing an uproar.

All too often, many of these hot takes are presented with little evidence or rationale backing up their claims, which is why the bold takes below are going to stand out from the rest. Pour yourself a cold cup of milk and make sure you have some bread within reach because things are about to get spicy.

Carl Lawson will be the first New York Jet to generate double-digit sacks since 2015

Lawson is coming off a torn Achilles tendon that ended his 2021 season before it could even begin. All signs pointed to Lawson becoming the true pass-rush threat off the edge that the Jets have been sorely lacking for years, as his pass-rush metrics from 2019 and 2020 were among the best in the NFL at his position. He boasted top-15 marks in pass-rush win rate (17.5%) and pressure rate (14.7%) among edge defenders who played at least 150 snaps since 2019.

Nonetheless, Lawson did struggle to convert his pressure into consistent sacks, managing just 9.5 sacks over that two-year span, which ranked 47th at his position. Luckily, sacks are wildly unstable year over year, so betting on positive regression for Lawson feels right. 

Carl Lawson’s pass rush ranks among EDGEs (min. 150 snaps) from 2019-2020
Pass-rush metric Pass-rush grade (true pass sets) Pass-rush win-rate Pressure rate
Value 82.8 17.5% 14.7%
Rank T-11th 14th T-11th

Kansas City Chiefs EDGE George Karlaftis leads all rookie IDPs in fantasy scoring 

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