The Patriots’ defense has been a popular conservation topic this week, and so I was interested to find evidence that Bill Belichick may have been aware of his team’s limitations before Sunday’s upset. In that Panthers game, the Patriots blitzed on more than 35 percent of pass plays for just the third time since the start of 2016, and for this season as a whole, the Patriots’ blitz rate is up significantly compared to the previous two seasons. At least in Week 4, that strategy didn’t work. Devin Funchess in particular benefited with a pair of touchdowns that came against blown coverages in blitzes. Future Patriots’ opponents will no doubt be less fortunate, but if the Patriots continue to blitz heavily, that will affect offenses’ likely target distribution against them. It’s something I will continue to monitor.
Meanwhile, I want to see a few more games before I’ll feel confident in projected Funchess’ share of the blitz targets versus that of Kelvin Benjamin, but it may be the case that Funchess is the de facto Greg Olsen replacement in Carolina and a security blanket for Cam Newton when teams blitz against him. The research I did over the offseason shows that some players consistently see more or fewer targets against blitz-heavy teams. Here are the players to target and avoid because of blitzes this week.
Players to target
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
The early returns on the Eagles’ acquisition of Jeffery are positive. Through four weeks, he is tied with Michael Thomas for the seventh-most targets among wide receivers. With more than 8 targets per game, it isn’t vital to pick and choose Jeffery’s matchups, but for DFS games, it’s worth knowing that 41.2 percent of his targets this season have come against blitzes. That is top 10 among the 74 players with 20-plus total targets. At 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, Jeffery has the size to consistently win in one-on-one matchups, which he sees more when teams blitz, and Carson Wentz has shown a Russell Wilson-like ability to extend plays so far in his young career. That is a recipe for success for Jeffery against blitzes, which he should see plenty of this week against my No. 1 projected blitzing team, the Cardinals.
DOMINATE FANTASY FOOTBALL & BETTING WITH AI-POWERED DATA & TOOLS TRUSTED BY ALL 32
Unlimited Fantasy League Sync
Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire
WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools
Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks
PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools
NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades
Already have a subscription? Log In
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.