DFS Data Dive: Hunting the best stacks of Week 9 | Fantasy Football News, Rankings and Projections | PFF

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DFS Data Dive: Hunting the best stacks of Week 9

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) throws a pass in the second quarter of the NFL Week 7 game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Sunday, Oct. 24, 2021. The Bengals led 13-10 at halftime. Cincinnati Bengals At Baltimore Ravens Week 7

This analysis of DFS main-slate stacks is a variation of the methodology used in analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates. It uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups.

I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each team’s QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE, QB-RB-WR stacks will be the highest-scoring of the slate. These are some of the most popular stack combinations employed in DFS strategy.

The information below is entirely in the form of plots and tables. If you’d like additional information and analysis on the same methodology broken out by position, please refer to the positional piece that also comes out every week.


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METHODOLOGY

For each game on the DFS Sunday main slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2021 and found the closest analogies according to the following parameters: betting spread, over/under, average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

Once I get the 75 most similar matchups for each upcoming game, I simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly choosing one of the 75 matchups for each game and then find the highest-scoring QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE and QB-RB-WR stacks on the simulated slate.

Every match of historical and current games is not perfect, but the simulation allows us to smooth out the bumps and get a strong picture of how a slate of similar games would have played out.

The last step is totaling up the number of times a particular team shows up as the top stack for each of the three stacks projected and then dividing that number by the total simulations. That number is what I call “highest scoring %” on the y-axis of the plots below labeled by team logo. Below the plots by team, I join the highest projected players that make up the stacks for that team and list their projected fantasy points and salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.

 

HOW TO VIEW THE PLOTS

Each plot below has every team on the main slate positioned by the combined salary of the stack and the percentage of time that team’s stack was the highest scorer in the simulations.

A way to look at them is that anything above the dashed horizontal line is a good scoring stack, and anything to the right of the dashed vertical line is a high-priced stack. You should pay most attention to the upper-right (high-scoring and high-priced) and upper-left (high-scoring and low-priced) quadrants. Ideally, you’ll find something in the upper-left that you’re confident in, but often paying up and moving into the upper-right can be beneficial.

QUARTERBACK/WIDE RECEIVER STACK

QB/WR players

Team Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
BLT 10.4 Lamar Jackson QB 28.0 7,300 26.1 8,300
BLT 10.4 Marquise Brown WR 15.0 6,000 12.0 7,700
DAL 8.0 Dak Prescott QB 24.5 6,900 22.7 7,900
DAL 8.0 CeeDee Lamb WR 17.1 7,200 13.6 7,500
BUF 7.4 Josh Allen QB 27.6 8,200 25.8 9,000
BUF 7.4 Stefon Diggs WR 19.4 7,700 15.3 7,600
KC 7.4 Patrick Mahomes QB 23.9 7,800 22.0 8,500
KC 7.4 Tyreek Hill WR 21.7 7,900 16.9 8,500
PHI 7.0 Jalen Hurts QB 20.0 6,700 18.8 7,800
PHI 7.0 DeVonta Smith WR 12.4 5,200 9.7 5,800
LV 5.7 Derek Carr QB 20.4 5,900 19.2 7,500
LV 5.7 Hunter Renfrow WR 13.6 4,800 10.7 5,600
LAC 5.4 Justin Herbert QB 21.2 7,000 19.7 7,600
LAC 5.4 Keenan Allen WR 16.5 6,700 12.6 7,000
ARZ 4.9 Kyler Murray QB 20.5 7,900 19.4 8,200
ARZ 4.9 DeAndre Hopkins WR 13.7 7,000 10.8 7,200
CIN 4.4 Joe Burrow QB 20.8 6,800 19.2 7,600
CIN 4.4 Ja'Marr Chase WR 18.8 7,600 15.0 7,900
ATL 4.3 Matt Ryan QB 19.5 5,600 18.1 6,700
ATL 4.3 Tajae Sharpe WR 10.1 4,200 8.1 5,500
GB 4.3 Jordan Love QB 21.5 4,400 20.0 6,000
GB 4.3 Davante Adams WR 22.4 8,200 17.3 9,000
MIA 4.2 Tua Tagovailoa QB 20.2 5,800 19.0 7,300
MIA 4.2 DeVante Parker WR 15.0 5,300 11.9 6,200
JAX 3.7 Trevor Lawrence QB 16.1 5,400 15.0 6,400
JAX 3.7 Marvin Jones Jr. WR 12.6 5,700 10.0 6,000
MIN 3.5 Kirk Cousins QB 17.5 6,200 16.3 7,400
MIN 3.5 Justin Jefferson WR 16.8 7,500 13.2 7,600
NE 3.3 Mac Jones QB 19.1 5,300 17.8 6,500
NE 3.3 Jakobi Meyers WR 14.9 5,200 11.5 5,500
SF 3.1 Jimmy Garoppolo QB 14.0 5,700 13.1 7,200
SF 3.1 Deebo Samuel WR 19.8 7,800 15.0 8,000
CLV 2.9 Baker Mayfield QB 17.8 5,400 16.8 6,600
CLV 2.9 Jarvis Landry WR 12.7 5,100 10.0 5,900
NO 2.8 Taysom Hill QB 20.1 5,500 19.0 7,000
NO 2.8 Marquez Callaway WR 11.7 5,000 9.4 5,400
NYG 2.6 Daniel Jones QB 21.1 5,600 19.3 7,300
NYG 2.6 Kenny Golladay WR 13.0 5,200 10.6 6,000
DEN 2.3 Teddy Bridgewater QB 19.3 5,300 18.0 7,100
DEN 2.3 Courtland Sutton WR 13.5 5,900 10.8 6,700
HST 2.2 Tyrod Taylor QB 17.0 5,000 15.9 6,900
HST 2.2 Brandin Cooks WR 14.3 6,100 11.2 6,800
CAR 1.6 Sam Darnold QB 16.8 5,500 15.7 7,000
CAR 1.6 D.J. Moore WR 19.1 6,400 14.8 7,100

 

RUNNING BACK/DST

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