DFS Data Dive: Hunting the best stacks of Week 8 | Fantasy Football News, Rankings and Projections | PFF

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DFS Data Dive: Hunting the best stacks of Week 8

Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) is congratulated by quarterback Tom Brady (12) after he scored a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

This analysis of DFS main-slate stacks is a variation of the methodology used in analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates. It uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups.

I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each team’s QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE, QB-RB-WR stacks will be the highest-scoring of the slate. These are some of the most popular stack combinations employed in DFS strategy.

The information below is entirely in the form of plots and tables. If you’d like additional information and analysis on the same methodology broken out by position, please refer to the positional piece that also comes out every week.


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METHODOLOGY

For each game on the DFS Sunday main slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2021 and found the closest analogies according to the following parameters: betting spread, over/under, average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

Once I get the 75 most similar matchups for each upcoming game, I simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly choosing one of the 75 matchups for each game and then find the highest-scoring QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE and QB-RB-WR stacks on the simulated slate.

Every match of historical and current games is not perfect, but the simulation allows us to smooth out the bumps and get a strong picture of how a slate of similar games would have played out.

The last step is totaling up the number of times a particular team shows up as the top stack for each of the three stacks projected and then dividing that number by the total simulations. That number is what I call “highest scoring %” on the y-axis of the plots below labeled by team logo. Below the plots by team, I join the highest projected players that make up the stacks for that team and list their projected fantasy points and salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.

HOW TO VIEW THE PLOTS

Each plot below has every team on the main slate positioned by the combined salary of the stack and the percentage of time that team’s stack was the highest scorer in the simulations.

A way to look at them is that anything above the dashed horizontal line is a good scoring stack, and anything to the right of the dashed vertical line is a high-priced stack. You should pay most attention to the upper-right (high-scoring and high-priced) and upper-left (high-scoring and low-priced) quadrants. Ideally, you’ll find something in the upper-left that you’re confident in, but often paying up and moving into the upper-right can be beneficial.

QUARTERBACK/WIDE RECEIVER STACK

QB/WR players

Team Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
TB 7.6 Tom Brady QB 24.2 7,400 22.2 8,300
TB 7.6 Chris Godwin WR 21.4 6,400 16.5 7,200
NE 6.4 Mac Jones QB 19.5 5,200 18.1 6,900
NE 6.4 Jakobi Meyers WR 15.6 5,100 12.0 5,700
PHI 6.2 Jalen Hurts QB 23.7 7,200 22.2 8,400
PHI 6.2 DeVonta Smith WR 15.2 5,500 11.9 6,200
ATL 6.1 Matt Ryan QB 22.3 5,900 20.5 7,200
ATL 6.1 Calvin Ridley WR 20.6 6,600 16.1 7,000
LA 6.0 Matthew Stafford QB 23.0 7,600 21.3 8,200
LA 6.0 Cooper Kupp WR 25.2 9,000 19.4 9,200
BUF 5.9 Josh Allen QB 26.3 8,100 24.8 8,800
BUF 5.9 Stefon Diggs WR 19.1 8,100 15.1 7,300
TEN 5.5 Ryan Tannehill QB 22.5 6,600 21.1 7,500
TEN 5.5 A.J. Brown WR 15.5 6,900 12.5 7,600
IND 5.4 Carson Wentz QB 19.5 5,700 18.1 7,200
IND 5.4 Michael Pittman Jr. WR 14.2 5,300 11.2 6,600
LAC 4.8 Justin Herbert QB 24.1 7,300 22.2 7,900
LAC 4.8 Keenan Allen WR 18.6 6,500 14.2 6,900
JAX 4.8 Trevor Lawrence QB 17.9 5,500 16.7 6,700
JAX 4.8 Marvin Jones Jr. WR 13.4 5,900 10.7 6,400
DET 4.6 Jared Goff QB 15.8 5,200 14.8 6,800
DET 4.6 Kalif Raymond WR 13.4 5,300 10.8 5,700
PIT 4.1 Ben Roethlisberger QB 13.7 5,400 12.8 6,600
PIT 4.1 Chase Claypool WR 13.2 6,300 10.5 6,500
DEN 3.8 Teddy Bridgewater QB 18.7 5,400 17.7 7,000
DEN 3.8 Courtland Sutton WR 12.7 6,400 10.3 7,100
CLV 3.8 Baker Mayfield QB 12.5 4,900 11.9 6,400
CLV 3.8 Odell Beckham Jr. WR 10.5 4,600 8.4 5,700
MIA 3.6 Tua Tagovailoa QB 16.6 5,500 15.5 7,100
MIA 3.6 DeVante Parker WR 11.8 4,900 9.4 5,700
NO 3.3 Jameis Winston QB 17.6 6,000 16.4 7,400
NO 3.3 Marquez Callaway WR 12.9 5,400 10.2 5,900
CAR 3.2 Sam Darnold QB 19.6 5,600 18.0 7,300
CAR 3.2 D.J. Moore WR 19.7 7,200 15.3 7,700
NYJ 3.2 Mike White QB 12.1 5,000 11.5 6,300
NYJ 3.2 Corey Davis WR 11.9 5,200 9.5 6,100
CIN 3.0 Joe Burrow QB 22.0 7,100 20.4 7,800
CIN 3.0 Ja'Marr Chase WR 19.7 7,500 15.7 8,200
SEA 2.8 Geno Smith QB 18.5 5,300 17.3 7,000
SEA 2.8 D.K. Metcalf WR 18.2 6,800 14.5 7,400
WAS 2.7 Taylor Heinicke QB 17.8 5,300 16.7 7,000
WAS 2.7 Terry McLaurin WR 16.5 7,600 12.8 7,400
HST 2.4 Davis Mills QB 16.1 4,800 14.8 6,300
HST 2.4 Brandin Cooks WR 16.7 5,700 12.9 6,000
SF 2.0 Jimmy Garoppolo QB 13.0 5,600 12.3 6,900
SF 2.0 Deebo Samuel WR 16.1 7,400 12.4 7,800
CHI 0.7 Justin Fields QB 16.0 5,000 15.1 6,400
CHI 0.7 Darnell Mooney WR 11.8 4,800 9.2 5,700

RUNNING BACK/DST

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