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Best NFL game stacks to target for DFS GPPs in Week 13

Sep 13, 2020; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) congratulates wide receiver Davante Adams (17) after his touchdown in the third quarter against the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Stacking is essential to success in DFS guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs). The average user who submits a handful of lineups on any one DFS slate doesn’t stack nearly enough in their lineups. The art of stacking is a way to increase variance, which is the only option that offers enough upside to win a GPP tournament.

An overlooked approach is the game-level stack, which takes not only a quarterback and pass-catching option but also runs it back with a pass-catcher or running back from the opposing team.

We see in our introductory article on stacking that if we hit on the correct quarterback and wide receiver to stack, a player from the opposing team is typically going to be worthwhile to pair with this combination to apply more lineup correlation into your roster builds.

This provides inherent upside to our lineups — if we hit on the correct quarterback, two or more additional lineup spots are typically hit on by the simple fact that they are highly correlated to our quarterback play. If your quarterback is a miss, the rest of your lineup is likely in a similar situation, as it is hard to pull off a quality finish in a GPP contest with a dud at the signal-caller position. 

Focusing on this approach of identifying potential hits at quarterbacks, we have built a model to project who is most likely to finish as the highest-scoring quarterback on the main slate based on fantasy projections, opponent-adjusted grades and betting market lines. Utilizing correlations for how fantasy points are distributed at the game level, we can then see the correct framework for how to approach roster construction for a game stack.

WEEK 12 REVIEW

The Chiefs stack was a hit, but no run-it-back option existed at the top of the Milly Maker tournament. Tyreek Hill’s 60.9 fantasy points were enough for the Patrick Mahomes-Hill stack to sweep the top of all leaderboards. The first game stack included Rob Gronkowski finishing sixth after failing to squeeze in Derrick Henry. The combination of Henry and Hill led to instant GPP success, which left game stacks not as likely of a path to the top of GPP tournaments.

This pairing was in fewer than 1% of lineups, which highlights that unique combinations can allow you to play higher-owned players. Hitting on Mahomes-Hill-Gronkowski was the optimal build unless you were wise enough to play Kyle Rudolph with his increase in pass-catching opportunities. 

Totals continue to trend down, as the mean this week is the fourth-lowest of 2020. This sits right next to the mean we had last week, and there are few high-end options. Only three games above 50 are on the main slate, with no clear top option to target for DFS. The highest-total game appears to be a target for running backs, so the pass-catching options should see low ownership.

In general, we should once again see spread-out ownership among game stacks. There are also numerous wide spreads, which means finding the game that stays close is a tough task this weekend. This could be a reason to lean away from game stacks in favor of a team stack approach. It could be a viable option, especially if a team that goes up big decides to run up the score. But this article will continue to focus on game stack options.

Let’s take a closer look at the games that this model believes have the best opportunity to produce the most fantasy points at each position. 

HIGH-OWNED OPTIONS

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

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