Stacking is essential to success in DFS GPPs. The average user who submits a handful of lineups on any one DFS slate doesn’t stack nearly enough in their lineups. The art of stacking is a way to increase variance, which is the only option that offers enough upside to win a GPP tournament.
An overlooked approach is the game-level stack, which takes not only a quarterback and pass-catching option but also runs it back with a pass-catcher or running back from the opposing team.
We see in our introductory article on stacking that if we hit on the correct quarterback and wide receiver to stack, a player from the opposing team is typically going to be worthwhile to pair with this combination to apply more lineup correlation into your roster builds.
This provides inherent upside to our lineups — if we hit on the correct quarterback, two or more additional lineup spots are typically hit on by the simple fact that they are highly correlated to our quarterback play. If your quarterback is a miss, the rest of your lineup is likely in a similar situation, as it is hard to pull off a quality finish in a GPP contest with a dud at the signal-caller position.
Focusing on this approach of identifying quarterbacks who could be hits, we have built a model to project who is most likely to finish as the highest-scoring quarterback on the main slate based on fantasy projections, opponent-adjusted grades and betting market lines. Utilizing correlations for how fantasy points are distributed at the game level, we can then see the correct framework for how to approach roster construction for a game stack.
WEEK 11 REVIEW
Naked Taysom Hill found its way to the top of the Milly Maker tournament, which took a perfect build at the wide receiver position. At the top of the Milly Maker leaderboard, the first game stack took third and utilized a Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller V and Damiere Byrd combination. It was an odd week in DFS, as the Keenan Allen and Adam Thielen plays were required for any sort of success. This duo was owned in just under 3% of lineups, with a stack using either quarterback the most likely scenario to include both.
The running back position offered no real differentiating performances, so wide receiver was the spot that drove DFS success. Odd weeks happen in DFS, but we are still looking to maximize our win probability in the best ways possible. Weeks like this help DFS players make irrational decisions in the future, which allows us to compete with fewer top-end lineups. Things often don’t break the way we expect, so constant evaluation of the process is required to continue to be successful. Game stacks still offer the easiest path to the top of a DFS leaderboard.
There are a number of game stack options with totals covering a much wider range than they did in Week 11. There are two clear options at the top, which should take up the majority of the ownership. A few other quality matchups exist in the second tier of game totals, which makes Week 12 one of the best slates we have had this season.
Let’s take a closer look at the games that this model believes have the best opportunity to produce the most fantasy points at each position.
The highest total on the main slate projects to have the highest-owned tight end and the second-highest owned wide receiver. Patrick Mahomes is expected to be the fourth-highest owned quarterback, with Tom Brady slotting in one spot ahead of him.