DFS success boils down to finding the highest-scoring fantasy football players at each position in a given week. With close to 20 playable options at the quarterback and tight end positions, along with even more at the running back and wide receiver positions, it is a feat in itself to identify one position correctly.
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To finish at the top of a DFS contest, you must hit on basically all skill positions and circumvent the randomness associated with selecting defenses. Doing all of this while also fitting under the confines of a salary cap makes DFS one of the most difficult setups to beat consistently, especially for large-field tournaments.
SALARY-ADJUSTED FANTASY PERFORMANCE
One of the best ways to find value opportunities on a given slate is to start with the salary-adjusted expectation for all players. DraftKings has been around for over six years, so we have a worthwhile dataset of player salaries and their resulting fantasy performances. By figuring out the expectation based on each player’s salary and position, we can compare their salary-expected fantasy performance to PFF’s fantasy projections in order to highlight the best value plays based on salary.
|Player||Position||Team||DK Salary||Salary Expectation||Proj. Fantasy Pts||Proj. Above Salary Expectation|
|Allen Robinson II||WR||CHI||4000||6.96||12.18||5.22|
|Marvin Jones Jr.||WR||JAX||4300||7.90||11.63||3.73|
PASS-CATCHING BLOWUP MODEL
Utilizing specific variables, we can build a model tuned to predict performances where a pass-catcher goes over a certain site-specific scoring threshold. For DraftKings, this is set at 25 fantasy points.
This model provides the percentage chance each receiver will meet or exceed our fantasy-point threshold for the site given their historical opportunity. The model won’t be right on every player, but it is useful in identifying the blow-up performances we want to unearth in our DFS lineups.
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