At Pro Football Focus, we define “deep” passes as pass attempts targeted 20 yards or more downfield. The benefit to tracking this data for both quarterbacks and receivers is that it not only helps us put into context which players do the most and least damage downfield, but also which particular QB/WR pairings are more or less conducive to fantasy success.
Traditionally, receivers who see the highest percentage of their targets on deep balls are often less consistent fantasy producers (i.e. boom-or-bust types). Put simply, without the deep ball – or, a QB who can sling the ball downfield accurately – a receiver of this type effectively becomes JAG (just another guy) among his peers.
Anecdotally, you already know that Colts’ speedster T.Y. Hilton sees a fair amount of downfield targets from Andrew Luck – 23 percent of his total targets since 2013 have been 20-plus yards downfield, to be exact, including a league-high 17 “deep” catches last season. Per our Scott Barrett, those targets have accounted for 34 percent of Hilton’s PPR fantasy production in that span, the eight-highest rate. However, Hilton stands out in that he has annually been one of PFF’s highest-graded receivers overall, having established a rapport with Luck over several seasons and operating the full route tree.
With that in mind, I wanted to take a look at some notable QB/WR tandems whose success is tied largely to the downfield passing game, specifically with an eye toward situations that are facing some level of change entering 2017.
Terrelle Pryor and Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins
No quarterback accumulated more yardage on deep throws last season than Cousins, who completed 50.0 percent of such throws for 1,359 yards, 11 touchdowns (second-most) and only three interceptions for a 118.1 QB rating. That’s particularly encouraging for Redskins’ free-agent signee Pryor, whose 32 deep targets trailed only Hilton and Mike Evans in 2016. But thanks to Cleveland’s dreadful QB situation, only nine of those targets were actually catchable, and he hauled in eight of them for 281 yards (35.1 YPC).
Also of note, one of Josh Doctson’s biggest strengths is his leaping ability to go up and win jump balls, a skill that served him well both in the red zone and down the field while at TCU.
DOMINATE FANTASY FOOTBALL & BETTING WITH AI-POWERED DATA & TOOLS TRUSTED BY ALL 32
Unlimited Fantasy League Sync
Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire
WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools
Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks
PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools
NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades
Already have a subscription? Log In
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.