• Second- and third-year receivers are most likely to breakout and win fantasy leagues.
• Looking at historical comps and ADP pricing can help us identify the best values for breakout potential among younger receivers.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown’s closest comps among historical players entering their second seasons is a strong group.
The most profitable breakouts at the receiver position have been those entering their second or third seasons, so I went through every viable second- and third-year breakout for 2022 and looked at their closest comps and ADPs.
WR AMON-RA ST. BROWN, DETROIT LIONS
It would be easy to dismiss the stellar finish to St. Brown’s rookie season as a product of lack of competition, but you have to have talent to be that productive, no matter who you’re lining up beside. The Lions’ rookie had at least 10 targets, eight receptions and 73 yards in every game from Week 13 on, making him the WR2 during that stretch behind only Cooper Kupp.
St. Brown’s closest comps among historical players entering their second seasons is a strong group.
The aforementioned Kupp is on the list, along with 2019’s top fantasy receiver Michael Thomas. The comps also include Keenan Allen and Jarvis Landry, two mainstays in PPR formats.
In sharper best-ball leagues, St. Brown’s ADP rose over the last month, though it is still in a good range for a potential top-10 receiver. And fantasy drafters aren’t buying that the Lions’ additions at receiver are going to provide much competition for St. Brown this season.
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