NFL News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

2021's Fantasy Breakout Wide Receiver: Michael Pittman Jr.

Colts receiver Michael Pittman Jr. looks for extra yards after one of his five catches. Jg 010921 Bills 28

In this series of articles, I’m looking at the fantasy football breakout potential for second-year wide receivers. One of the best ways to determine the range of outcomes and the probability of success for fantasy players is by comparing them to similar historical players.

In this analysis, I’ll compare Michael Pittman Jr. to hundreds of receivers drafted since 2006 and project the likelihood of his breakout based on those who had the most similar size, college production, draft position and rookie metrics.

To read the articles on the other wide receivers from the 2020 draft class, click here.

METHODOLOGY

The matching methodology is similar to what was used to focus on 2021 wide receiver and running back prospect comps, where I found the closest statistically comparable players using principal component analysis (PCA) and the euclidean distance between the players' components. I then gave each a “similarity score” based on the percentile of distance.

The metrics for PCA are draft position, weight, market share of college receiving yards (CFB Yds MS), college yards per reception (CFB YPR), rookie yards per route run (Rook YPRR), rookie average depth of target (Rook aDOT), rookie PPR fantasy points per game (PPR Per) and top-24 fantasy weeks (Top-24). All college numbers are from the players’ final seasons.

MICHAEL PITTMAN JR. COMPS

Subscribe to PFF+ to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Safety worth way more than 2 points. Help protext your family with fast, affordable life insurance. You could be covered in 10 minutes! Get a Free Quote.
Sponsor

NFL Featured Tools

Subscriptions

Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS.

$9.99 / mo
$79.99 / yr