It has been quite awhile since the PFF Fantasy Dynasty writers got together for a roundtable discussion, September 2011 to be exact. We have many new staff members on board since the beginning of the year, and I wanted to give you a chance to get to know our newest writer Chad Parsons. Chad is the mind behind our Long-Term Dynasty Rankings and has already posted tons of great content this offseason.
Here are the questions I had for Chad in our recent virtual dynasty league roundtable:
What is your outlook on Mike Wallace in 2012 given his uncertain situation going into free agency?
Chad Parsons – I am lower on Mike Wallace than most, leading to a lower expectation across the board for me. That said, I think Pittsburgh is the best spot for him in a fantasy sense. He was eighth in PFF pass rating in 2010 and 14th in 2011. Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders are good complementary targets yet leave Wallace’s high ceiling intact. Because I see Wallace departing Pittsburgh as a real possibility this offseason, I would have to downgrade his stock. His early ADP in dynasty drafts is WR6 (mid-second round), which is too high in my opinion based on his uncertain destination and lack of an all-around game at this junction of his career.
Bryan Fontaine – I have to agree with you Chad, Mike Wallace’s best chance for fantasy success would be to return to Pittsburgh. The possibility that Wallace could be catching passes for the rival Baltimore Ravens has to scare the Pittsburgh front office. I have Wallace ranked 12th among wide receivers, so according to your ADP data I would not be selecting him in many drafts. While I would have a tough taking Wallace early in a startup draft, I would not panic if he was already on my dynasty roster. Even if he were to leave Pittsburgh, he would retain his big play ability elsewhere. I am a big of fan of Antonio Brown, but he and Wallace are completely different wide receivers. If Wallace leaves, I doubt Brown would be the de facto top wide receiver. Brown did have a higher fantasy points scored per snap (0.34 to 0.28) and targets per pass route run (28.4% to 20.7%) than Wallace did in 2011. Wallace has dominated Brown this far in their careers in touchdown per reception rate (12.5% to 2.1%) and average depth of target (15.3 to 12.3), however. Wallace may not be your traditional 100-catch, top-flight wide receiver, but I also agree that makes Brown and Emmanuel Sanders great complementary receivers.
Besides Mike Wallace, who could be the biggest impact free agent in 2012?
Parsons – The 2012 free agent class has the potential to be the biggest and most star-studded in recent memory. However, I expect a majority of the big names to say put, be signed under the franchise tag, or remain on their current team under restricted free agency parameters. In terms of affecting the most fantasy players’ values, the biggest player in free agency is Peyton Manning. He is a long-shot to remain in Indianapolis and would impact every skill position player on his new team. Here are a few of the fantasy-relevant players whose fantasy value would be positively impacted by Manning’s potential signing if he under center:
- Miami: Brandon Marshall could vault into the top 10 WRs in dynasty drafts (currently WR17 in ADP). Davone Bess becomes the vogue choice as the new Austin Collie for Manning.
- Washington: Leonard Hankerson jumps from WR43 in dynasty drafts closer to WR30. He is young, talented, and could become Manning’s new go-to guy. Fred Davis would be a major play at tight end as a seam-threat a la Dallas Clark.
- Seattle: Sidney Rice jumps from WR35 in dynasty drafts to around WR25. Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin are intriguing intermediate weapons to track. Zach Miller returns to fantasy relevance.
- Arizona: Larry Fitzgerald would rival Calvin Johnson in dynasty value; 1,600+ yards and 12+ TDs becomes the new prediction for Fitzgerald as long as Manning is healthy. Andre Roberts gets a bump as an intriguing bench player. Rob Housler very intriguing as an upside #2 fantasy tight end.
- Kansas City: Jonathan Baldwin gets the biggest bump with Dwayne Bowe’s status up in the air (have to think Bowe is more inclined to stay if Manning signs first). Steve Breaston and Tony Moeaki are legitimate upside plays as bench fantasy players.
Fontaine – Great call with Peyton Manning. I will keep the topic on quarterbacks and say that Matt Flynn will have the biggest free agent impact. It is all but a certainty that Flynn will leave Green Bay for a starting job somewhere, whether it is Miami, Seattle, Cleveland or somewhere else. The concern that Flynn is a sample size all-star could damper the enthusiasm on him on the open market, but it is unwarranted. I will admit Flynn’s career numbers are inflated due to his 480-yard, six-touchdown performance in Week 17 against Detroit. He also almost led the Packers to a win last year in Foxboro in a playoff-like atmosphere with 251 yards passing and three touchdowns. It is doubtful Flynn can keep up his 11.0% touchdown-per-completion rate going forward, but his career completion percentage (62.6%) and average depth of target (8.3 yards) indicate he is not just a play it safe backup quarterback. Depending on Flynn’s destination, I could see moving him up in my rankings from QB27 to around QB19 or higher. He will make a great dynasty backup quarterback with top-10 upside some weeks.
The NFL Scouting Combine starts this weekend. Name the one player you looking forward to see perform the most.
Parsons – Hands down, Alshon Jeffrey has the most fantasy stock riding on his workouts. He is a huge target on the outside, but has not treated his body like a temple during his college career. Millions of dollars are riding on his combine numbers. If he cannot fully dedicate himself for the biggest job interview of his life in Indianapolis, what will? Depending on the combine, destination team, and draft position, I could see Jeffrey ranging from a mid-1st round rookie pick in dynasty all the way to a mid-2nd. Jeffrey is high risk/reward in dynasty leagues, but showing some dedication to his craft in the coming weeks would go a long way towards raising his perceived ceiling and lower that risk for perspective dynasty owners.
Fontaine – The top quarterbacks (Luck and Griffin III) look like they will not throw at the combine, so I will also be looking at the wide receiver position. Justin Blackmon would be my top dynasty rookie prospect at the position regardless of his forty-yard dash time will be. Instead, my focus will be on senior wide receiver Michael Floyd of Notre Dame. I am intrigued by Floyd’s measureables of 6’3” and 225 lbs and his college production (37 TD in 42 career games). It is doubtful Floyd will have a blazing forty-yard dash time given his size, but I will be watching his route running and how he gets in and out of his breaks. If he shows he is a fluid athlete and not just a jump-ball guy, he will probably be my second-ranked wide receiver after Blackmon going into rookie-only drafts.
We get this question on Twitter a lot, but how do you value rookie draft picks in trades?
Parsons – It is simple for me. It comes down to the player I would be trading away or acquiring for that rookie pick. Outside of the top tier of rookies (last year's top-3 with Ingram, Jones, and Green; this year's top-2 with Richardson and Blackmon), they are really shots in the attempted-to-be-educated darkness. Every year I add to my process of evaluating and managing the risk of incoming NFL rookies, but it still contains many unforeseen variables. In short, I will take a proven player over a pick in a vacuum. Many times a second- or third-year player is lower risk with the same (or higher) upside. I would rather have some tape on a young player at the NFL level to gauge their play than a blind assumption from college.
Rookie picks are a valuable commodity to use in dynasty leagues as currency. Outside of grabbing one of the top tier rookies of a given year, I strongly advise trading down in a draft if value is not there and acquiring future first round rookie picks instead of current year second and third round selections. To gauge the current market value for rookie picks, I use dynasty start-up draft ADP where picks are drafted along with players. For example, Trent Richardson (or the 1.01 rookie pick) is currently being drafted in the early second round of initial dynasty drafts.
Fontaine – I could not agree more. Rookie draft picks are like currency, and they hold different value at various points of the year. As the rookie draft gets closer and the consensus of the top players comes together, a top pick could be worth a decent bounty in a trade. Likewise, second and third round picks could have little value if the perceived rookie pool after the top players is not strong.
Rebuilding dynasty squads often overvalue rookie picks and will trade away proven veterans on the hope that they are acquiring top-level talent that will carry their team for the next five years when, in fact, most rookie picks are like scratch tickets. There is an initial thrill of scratching them off hoping you hit the jackpot, but often you are left disappointed and you throw the discarded ticket in the trash. Even scouts that study the college game year round can miss badly on a top prospect, so your odds of hitting every rookie draft pick correctly are slim. For every A.J Green or Julio Jones, there are plenty more busts that fail to live up to their hype. A more sound strategy to is to target post-hype sophomore players that struggled as rookies that still have high upside – their price target is considerably less.
If you could only buy one player in dynasty right now based on their current value/price, who would it be?
Parsons – There are many honorable mentions for this question for me, but narrowing the list to just one player would leave Demaryius Thomas. Luckily, I have him in all but one dynasty league right now and all of my auction keeper leagues. I saw enough in 2011 to be confident about his long-term future in the NFL. I am surprised his playoff performance on national television did not spike his dynasty ADP more than WR24 (mid-to-late fifth round) at this point. He is a physical freak that is just now touching on his immense potential. Thomas had a +2.7 pass rating, 63% catch rate, and 29.7 YPC in the playoffs with Tim Tebow throwing him the ball. That is significant. Whether Tebow progresses as a passer is irrelevant to Thomas’ success. The latter was the WR12 (almost 18 PPG) from week 13 on in 2011, when he was finally healthy and getting sufficient targets. If Tebow fails to progress as a passer, I think Denver moves on quickly at quarterback to a more polished passer. Either way, Thomas is a fixture in fantasy as at least a high-upside WR2 week-to-week in my opinion.
Fontaine – Demaryius Thomas is a player we are both bullish on. I have him ranked 20th in my dynasty rankings for all the same reasons. Another low valued wide receiver I am targeting in all of my leagues right now is WR Sidney Rice. Rice struggled with injuries in his first season in Seattle, but still offers considerable upside as he turns 26 years old this season. His breakout 2009 season may be a distant memory for some. Since 2008, Rice has a touchdown per reception rate of 12.5% with 20 touchdowns (13 of which were in the red zone). Part of buying in on Rice at his current price is gambling on two things: his health improves and the Seahawks have improved quarterback play.
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