The Dynasty Rookie Blitz goes beyond the box score to examine the impact of the most recent NFL Draft class.
Quarterback
If healthy, it looks like Cam Newton is a lock for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Amongst all NFL Quarterbacks with a minimum of 50 snaps, Newton has a gaudy 0.47 Fantasy Points per Snap average (third overall in the NFL). After 5 weeks, Newton is tied for second overall amongst all NFL running backs with five rushing touchdowns. Newton’s legs are not the only reason he is putting up points. On passes over 20 yards downfield, Newton has an average passer rating of 107.97. At this point Newton is a must-start unless you have him as a reserve behind a top quarterback (Rodgers, Brees etc.) on your dynasty roster.
Andy Dalton continues to show promise for a surprisingly competitive Bengals team. Dalton’s overall PFF rating of 5.6 has improved slowly over the past five weeks. Although he is improving, Dalton’s flaws such as pocket presence and arm strength seem to be glaring. When Dalton is blitzed, he has a PFF Overall Rating of -3.0, compared to a PFF Overall Rating of 7.0 when not blitzed. Dalton is also struggling on passes greater than 10 yards downfield.
There was a glimmer of hope for Blaine Gabbert, who showed improvement last week. Gabbert had his first positive PFF Overall Rating of 2.1 against a tougher than expected Bengals defense. Like Dalton, Gabbert seems to be struggling on deep passes over 20 yards. Gabbert has only completed three passes on 13 pass attempts over 20 yards downfield, that does not bode well for wide receivers in Jacksonville.
Running Back
It has been well documented that a Joseph Addai injury would boost Delone Carter’s value quite a bit. Carter saw an increase in snaps due to Addai’s injury, but showed improvement as he had his first positive PFF Overall Rating of the season of 0.3. Similarly, Carter showed improved in pass blocking where he posted his first positive pass block rating of 0.1. Look for Carter to see an increased role ahead while Addai recovers from a hamstring injury.
Just when owners thought it was safe to start Stevan Ridley, he rewards them with seven carries for 13 yards. Ridley has been very effective after first contact as he is averaging 3.6 yards after contact per attempt. Although Ridley only saw 16% of the Patriots’ total snaps, look for that number to increase as BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been dealing with an injury and might miss a game or two. I do expect a Shane Vereen sighting very soon. The Patriots backfield is in flux and there could be some opportunities for these two rookies very soon.
The Saints have used Mark Ingram sparingly thus far, but there is hope that his carries could pick up. Ingram has steadily improved as evidenced by his positive PFF Overall Ratings of 1.0 and 0.5 over the past two weeks.
Tawain Jones has looked very explosive in his limited snaps. Averaging a league leading 6.5 yards after contact per attempt, Jones is showing that his preseason was not a fluke. Look for Jones’ value to skyrocket if there is a McFadden injury (history of injuries) or if Michael Bush leaves for another team after the 2011 season.
Even though he has not seen many snaps over the past two weeks, Kendall Hunter is still a very good player to have on your roster. Currently Hunter is averaging 0.5 fantasy points per snap, tied for 14th overall among all running backs. Even with Gore’s recent resurgence, it might be tough to pry Hunter away from an opponent’s dynasty roster.
Daniel Thomas struggled with an injury over the past two weeks but should be seeing over 40 snaps per game going forward. Reggie Bush has struggled and is reportedly injured, so look for the Dolphins to get him the ball.
Wide Receiver
It will not be easy to acquire A.J. Green in dynasty leagues at this point. The rookie has shown that he is capable of carrying a passing game with 24 catches on 41 targets so far this season. Currently, Green is ranked second overall amongst all wide receivers in receiving yards on passes over 20 yards downfield with 224 yards. Considering Andy Dalton’s struggles getting the ball downfield, this stat is very impressive. Green is averaging 16.4 fantasy points per game and is proving he could be successful with any quarterback.
Greg Little should be on your radar and is poised for a breakout game this week. Little was promoted to the starting lineup for the Browns, and although he was already playing a lot of snaps (214 ), look for Little to get more targets as he transitions to more of a focal point in the offense. Expect Little’s 0.13 fantasy points per snap and 0.19 fantasy points per opportunity to rise quickly over the next few weeks.
The Raiders have been giving Denarius Moore a steady amount of snaps as he has over 50 per week over the last two weeks. Although Moore’s targets have fallen since Week 2, he is still the most dynamic receiving threat the on the Raiders’ roster.
Andrew Hawkins is a player to keep your eyes on. Hawkins has only played eight total snaps this season but he has been targeted 7 times out of those eight snaps. He is averaging a whopping 7 yards per route run, ranking him 3rd overall amongst all wide receivers in that stat. His role could increase going forward.
The Seahawks’ passing game is picking up and Doug Baldwin has been a contributor. Baldwin has taken advantage of teams focusing on Sidney Rice to average 0.38 fantasy points per snap. He currently has a lofty PFF Overall Rating of 6.1, 13th among all wide receivers.
Tight End
This position has been very disappointing thus far. I still hold out hope for Lance Kendricks but he currently has a PFF Overall Rating of -7.1.
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