The Dynasty Rookie Blitz goes beyond the box score to examine the impact of the most recent NFL Draft class.
Quarterback
Although Cam Newton could be your NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at quarterback, he has struggled in the passing game with a PFF Pass Rating of -7.8 on the season. Newton’s top receiving weapon, Steve Smith, has been very quiet lately, as he has broken 100 yards receiving just once since Week 8. By contrast, Newton’s PFF Rush Rating is a staggering 15.0, highest among all quarterbacks.
T.J. Yates has been a pleasant surprise for the Houston Texans. Thrust into the starting lineup after a season ending injury to Matt Schaub, Yates has led the Texans to three consecutive wins. Yates’ grades have increased steadily every week he has played; his latest effort was good enough to earn a grade of 1.2. So far, Yates looks like he could be the next Matt Schaub, Kevin Kolb or Matt Cassel type of backup who could work his way into a starting lineup somewhere in the NFL when he becomes a free agent. Yates could be an option in deep dynasty leagues, but I would not run to trade for him yet.
Andy Dalton seems to be regressing a bit over the past five weeks as his PFF Rating has dropped to -5.3. Keep in mind that during that time span Dalton has faced difficult defenses in Pittsburgh twice, Baltimore and Houston. Dalton is still in the running for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but he needs to show statistical improvement in order to pull ahead of Newton.
After 14 weeks, the worst quarterback in the NFL is Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert’s play on the field has been atrocious and is directly reflected by his PFF Rating of -45.4. There is no legitimate reason to hold Gabbert on any dynasty roster – he is slowly but surely playing his way out of the NFL.
Running Back
Roy Helu has officially taken over the starting running back job in Washington. Over the past three weeks, Helu has averaged 64.3 snaps, being used as both a rusher and a receiver. Helu is also averaging a healthy 11.1 fantasy points per game this season, and he looks like he will be a workhorse back for those that held on to him during the early season Shanahanigans.
DeMarco Murray’s season has ended just as quickly as his rise to fantasy stardom began. A broken ankle will sideline the rookie for the remainder of the 2011 season. Murray is a sell candidate in dynasty leagues, as Dallas will likely return to a split backfield in 2012.
Atlanta’s Jacquizz Rodgers continues to be productive in limited opportunities. He is a prime dynasty buy, as Michael Turner seems to have lost all his explosiveness. Rodgers’ PFF Rating of 5.4 is 26th overall amongst running backs. Even though Rodgers’ fantasy points per opportunity (0.31) and his fantasy points per snap (0.23) are modest, look for him to improve as he earns more opportunities going forward. Rodgers is one of the best dynasty buys in this rookie class.
Another solid dynasty buy low is Mark Ingram. Ingram has impressed in limited work this season, as injury issues have put him on the back burner in New Orleans. Ingram’s 0.43 fantasy points per snap is 22nd overall amongst running backs. If Ingram’s injuries or the Saints passing game getting in the way of Ingram’s opportunities frustrate the Ingram owner in your league, be sure to make some offers for the talented running back.
Daniel Thomas’ rookie campaign has also been derailed by injury. Thomas is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and 2.0 yards after contact per attempt. Reggie Bush seems to have solidified the starting running back role, but with a pending coaching change, the Miami backfield should be watched carefully this offseason.
Wide Receiver
With Greg Jennings out with an injury, look for Randall Cobb to get more involved in the high powered Packers’ offense. Over the past five weeks, Cobb has averaged 24.4 snaps per week and that number is sure to increase as Head Coach Mike McCarthy said that Cobb will play Jennings' role in the offense until he returns from injury. An increase in opportunity coupled with Cobb’s average of 0.43 fantasy points per opportunity (34th overall amongst wide receivers) could mean excellent production over the next few weeks. Cobb has shown excellent hands, boasting a lofty catch percentage of 79.2 (11th among all wide receivers) and Aaron Rodgers will look his way many times over the next few weeks.
Greg Little’s dynasty stock might need to be reevaluated. Despite starting and taking over 800 snaps this season, Little is only averaging 0.15 fantasy points per snap and 0.24 fantasy points per opportunity. One could argue that Colt McCoy has not helped Little at all. Little’s PFF Overall Rating of -13.4, worst amongst all NFL wide receivers, proves that he is to blame for his lack of production. The problem is not targets – Little is averaging 7.4 targets per game, but his catch percentage of 54.2% and his touchdown percentage of 1.8% show that Little is not playing well. It will be interesting to see who Cleveland brings in to play quarterback in 2012, but at this point we have to see some serious improvement in Little’s play in order to consider him a top prospect going forward.
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