The Dynasty Rookie Blitz goes beyond the box score to examine the impact of the most recent NFL Draft class.
Quarterback
Cam Newton continues to be the best multifaceted quarterback threat since Michael Vick. Newton has nine rushing touchdowns, good for 3rd overall amongst all NFL players behind Adrian Peterson and LeSean McCoy. Along with being a goal line threat Newton has 12 passing touchdowns, making him a fantasy star.
A quarterback showing tremendous improvement is Andy Dalton. I wrote about Dalton’s terrible deep passing statistics a few weeks ago, but since then he has improved to a passer rating of 94.1 on passes over 20 yards down field. This is great news for A.J. Green owners, as the two rookies continue to build rapport and grow together. Along with improvement on his deep passes, Dalton has also shown excellent pocket presence. When under pressure, Dalton has thrown three touchdowns and no interceptions. When blitzed, Dalton has thrown five touchdowns and only two interceptions.
Unlike Dalton, Blaine Gabbert is getting worse from week to week. Gabbert has the worst PFF rating of all quarterbacks (-11.1). After 11 weeks, Gabbert has looked dreadful and cannot be counted on in any fantasy leagues.
Running Back
DeMarco Murray has officially taken over the Dallas starting running back job and it does not look like he will be giving it up any time soon. Murray’s PFF rating of 8.7 ranks as the ninth best amongst running backs. Jerry Jones has publicly stated that he wants Murray to be the primary ball carrier going forward and we have to believe him. Over the past 3 weeks, Murray has showed that he can be effective receiving out of the backfield, catching 16 of 19 targets for 115 total yards. All signs are pointing to Felix Jones being used strictly to spell Murray going forward.
Over the past three weeks, Jacquizz Rodgers has had 19 carries for 76 yards. Atlanta seems to be giving Michael Turner more rest as the team makes a playoff push down the stretch. The diminutive running back has looked good in his limited opportunities; his PFF Rating of 4.7 is 25th overall amongst running backs.
Daniel Thomas has not been able to shake Reggie Bush, not surprising given his PFF rating (-2.4). The PFF Elusive Rating measures how difficult a running back is to bring down independently of his blockers. Daniel Thomas’ rating of 18.7 is 94th overall amongst all running backs. It seems that as long as Reggie Bush can stay healthy and continue to look like a lead back for the Dolphins, Daniel Thomas will have to wait for his opportunity to get more carries.
After coming back from injury, Mark Ingram has not seen an increase in his snaps for the Saints. Ingram was playing over 20 snaps on a weekly basis before, but has been eased back into the mix with just 15 twice in the past 3 weeks. From a dynasty perspective, Ingram can definitely be a productive fantasy contributor, but it will not be this season. Look for Ingram to get a larger amount of work in 2012 as injuries have gotten the best of him this year.
Bilal Powell saw his first action of the year in Week 11 against the Broncos. With Shonn Greene injuring his ribs and Tomlinson out, Powell was activated and used sparingly against the Broncos. Look for his role to increase as the running backs ahead of him on the depth chart are out with injuries.
Wide Receiver
Torrey Smith looks like he is going to be a Mike Wallace clone for the Baltimore Ravens. Smith had his second game with over 100 yards receiving in Week 10. Like most rookie receivers not named A.J. Green, Smith has been wildly inconsistent but he has been fantastic on deep passing plays. Torrey Smith is the most targeted receiver in the NFL on passes over 20 yards downfield with 28 targets year to date. Of those 28 targets, Smith has caught five for touchdowns, tying for most in the NFL with Calvin Johnson and Mike Wallace. If Smith can continue to develop his route running on shorter routes, look for him to continue to blossom into an all-around receiver.
Look for Denarius Moore to flourish with Carson Palmer at the helm in Oakland. Moore came on strong in Week 10 with five catches, 123 yards and two touchdowns. Similarly to Smith, Moore has excelled at the deep passing game. Moore’s three touchdowns on passes over 20 yards puts him at a seven way tie for ninth overall amongst all receivers.
Jonathan Baldwin has been active and is averaging over 40 snaps per week for the last five weeks. Baldwin’s chances to emerge in 2011 are circling the drain as Matt Cassel is out for the rest of the year. Look for Baldwin to have much more value in 2012 when the Chiefs’ signal caller returns.
Greg Little continues to show promise; unfortunately, his quarterback does not. Despite his PFF rating of -5.9, Little has miraculously managed to average 8.6 fantasy points per game. Little is one of my favorite dynasty “buy lows” this offseason, as the Browns will likely have a new quarterback next year with a stronger arm than Colt McCoy does.
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