Fantasy: Dynasty Average Draft Position Values - RB

Any successful dynasty league owner will tell you the secret to their success is finding value – whether it is in their startup draft or by trade. Having a solid set of rankings to go by can lead to success. However, to maximize your roster, you need to know what your competition is thinking. One tool at your disposal to take advantage of this is average draft position (ADP). In the first part of a three-part series, I will highlight several running backs whose ADP value is lower than in our combined consensus staff dynasty rankings.

Jahvid Best is slipping in drafts and dynasty owners are obviously concerned about his concussion issues long-term. The fact that Best is available in the late eighth and ninth round just screams value, especially in PPR leagues. The Lions have cleared him to play in 2012, and while the concerns are still there that his next concussion could be a career-ender, it is uncommon to get a RB2 or flex starter so late in your drafts. Best was off to a great start to 2011, averaging 19.0 fantasy points per game – up from 12.4 in his rookie year. His yards per carry were 4.6 – up from 3.3 in 2010, and his rushing yards after contact per attempt was 2.4, up from 1.8 as a rookie. Best has also seen an increase in value in PPR leagues. He has lined up in the slot and out wide 11.5% of the time so far in his career and he is targeted heavily in the passing game when on the field (22% of the time when running a pass route).

Donald Brown has been regarded as a bust so far in his career, but a closer examination of his statistical progression indicates he can be a low-cost starter for your fantasy team. With an increased workload, his yards per carry (3.6, 3.9, and 4.9) and yards after contact per attempt (2.4, 2.9, and 3.1) have increased each year since 2009. The Colts will be looking for a power back under new head coach Chuck Pagano, a role that Brown has now shown he can handle between the tackles. Delone Carter (3.7 YPC, 2.7 Yco/Att) could be a threat to take carries away from Brown, but is not a dynamic runner and struggled with pass protection as a rookie. Brown is entering his fourth season in the league and is still just 25 years old. He is a bargain in the ninth or tenth round.

Jacquizz Rodgers is never going to be mistaken for a feature back at 5’6” 196 lbs. However, as Darren Sproles displayed last year, being a small running back does not mean you cannot have significant value in PPR leagues. The NFL is a copycat league, so it would not be shocking to see Rodgers used like his division-rival this year. Both running backs are eerily similar in body build, although Rodgers has extra weight that could lead to more inside carries. Using our forced missed tackle statistics, Rodgers forced 20 missed tackles on 78 combined rushing attempts and receptions (26%) – Sproles forced 24 on 173 combined attempts and receptions (14%). Given Michael Turner’s age (30), Rodgers can be more than a change of pace back starting in 2012.

Daniel Thomas had a disappointing rookie season and not many of our advanced statistics indicate a breakout is imminent. However, after the 12th round of startup drafts – you are looking for any positive signs for your reserve players. Thomas will turn just 25 years old this October and is the lone power back candidate on the roster. Reggie Bush had a career year in 2011 – although he has not been a consistent between the tackles runner year to year. Thomas also has competition from speedster rookie Lamar Miller. If one player on the Dolphins is going to be the goal line running back, it is going to be Thomas – especially if he can improve on his paltry 1.9 rushing yards after contact per attempt last year. Also, do not forget that Thomas was a consensus first round rookie pick in 2011 and still holds some trade value at his current valuation.

Shane Vereen impressed in the three games he played in as a rookie. Injuries limited him to just 24 snaps, however, when he was on the field – he finished in the top-five among running backs in fantasy points per snap (0.49) in PPR leagues. Vereen led the entire league in rushing yards after contact per attempt (4.3). He could flourish with an increase in playing time, and early offseason reports indicate that Vereen in running with the first team offense. You can expect Vereen’s ADP to rise as we get closer to the season, but he is still a value in the 11th round or later of your drafts.

Felix Jones is a forgotten player just one season after he failed again to capture the lead back role for the Cowboys. DeMarco Murray burst on to the fantasy scene in replacement of Jones before an ankle injury knocked him out for the year. Jones is a talented player that can succeed in a limited role, someone who should go off the board sooner than he is. He still has flex starter upside, and in 2011, he saw a significant spike in pass targets per snap and on a pass route run basis – which keeps him relevant in PPR leagues. Do not forget about his tough running ability, his 3.0 rushing yards after contact per attempt for his career is well above the league average.

Bilal Powell had a disappointing rookie season on the surface, totaling only 24 snaps in two games. He rushed the ball 13 times for an insignificant 21 yards; however, 15 of those yards came after contact. Powell could surprise with a shot to earn carries in 2012 if Shonn Greene continues to disappoint as a feature back. At a cost of a pick in the 17th round or later, Powell makes a perfect final pick to round out your running back depth chart.

—

Ask Bryan Fontaine for dynasty league advice on Twitter: @Bryan_Fontaine

Find more of our Dynasty Content here.