Fantasy: Buyer Beware - Lofa Tatupu

Without a doubt, Lofa Tatupu has built up an impressive resume as a middle linebacker throughout his career.  Consisting of three Pro Bowl appearances and achieving All-Pro honors in 2007, Tatupu was able to find work this off-season with the Atlanta Falcons.  However, Falcons’ fans may be overly optimistic if they think they have adequately replaced Curtis Lofton as their franchise middle linebacker.

Tatupu sat out the entire 2011 season, which in itself should induce sufficient skepticism.  If not, that skepticism may be induced by the fact that Tatupu’s production has dropped off considerably since his All-Pro performance in 2007.  Consequently, the Falcons should not halt their search for a more long-term solution at middle linebacker, considering the position is open for competition.  Questions about Tatupu’s durability also remain a pertinent issue, and as a result his IDP value, while difficult to determine, is very limited at this point.

In addition to missing the entire 2011 season, Tatupu played only five games in 2009 – making his total since 2007 to just 36 games.  In 2008, Tatupu had a respectable season, grading out with a +3.3 overall rating.  However, after an injury ended his 2009 season in only Week 5, Tatupu was unable to regain form in 2010.  Grading out with an overall rating of -8.4, something clearly wasn’t right in 2010 as Tatupu fell into a bit of a funk.  This table displays how his grades decreased dramatically from 2008-2010:

Fantasy Spin:

While Tatupu has had significant fantasy value in the past, he just isn’t the same anymore.  As a result, his current status does not constitute a draft pick in your IDP league draft.  The large amount of time he has spent off the field is only part of the reason, though.  Even when healthy, Tatupu just hasn’t been as efficient when on the field recently.  Despite playing in 183 more snaps in 2010 than in 2008, Tatupu’s 2010 tackle total fell short of his 2008 total.  This table illustrates his drop off in efficiency from 2008-2010:

Atlanta already has a big-time playmaker at linebacker in Sean Weatherspoon, which may further limit Tatupu’s tackling opportunities.  Weatherspoon exploded onto the scene during his second season in 2011, solidifying himself as a premier outside linebacker.  Additionally, Stephen Nicholas also emerged as an efficient playmaker in limited time in 2011.  The departure of 2011 team-leading tackler, Curtis Lofton, in addition to the uncertainty at middle linebacker should lead to big years for Weatherspoon and Nicholas, especially the former.

As of now, second-year pro Akeem Dent is listed as the Falcons’ starting MLB, although head coach Mike Smith claims the position is “wide open.”  Although he described Tatupu’s workout as “really strong,” Smith recognized that the winner will likely be limited primarily to early downs.  Consequently, even if Tatupu wins the starting spot he will likely come off the field on passing downs for Dent, killing his IDP value.