To accurately compile projections, it is important to study target distribution to each position. Below is analysis of said target distributions for each team in the NFC. A chart showing all 2008 and 2009 data is at the bottom. The chart also includes 2010 projections.
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ARIZONA CARDINALS — The Cardinals have been one of the easiest teams to read under Ken Whisenhunt: Throw to the running backs a ton, the receivers even more, and the tight end never. With Kurt Warner gone, however, the team will run more. This means more play action, which means more blockers on the field, which means more passes to tight ends. Ben Patrick is a winner here. Losers include Early Doucet and Steve Breaston.
ATLANTA FALCONS — The Falcons' passing game relies heavily on two players: Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. You can see the change in reliance on the tight end from 2008 to 2009 due to the addition of Gonzalez. Game plans won't always change due to personnel adjustments, but they will when an impact player such as Gonzalez is brought into the picture. The only major change on offense for Atlanta this year is the recovery of Harry Douglas from the injury that sidelined him for all of 2009. The Falcons already rely very little on the running back in the pass game (Jerious Norwood will get the bulk of the RB share) and we'd be silly to expect a lighter workload for Gonzalez. This doesn't translate much of a change in the team's projections for 2010.
CAROLINA PANTHERS — The Panthers saw drastic changes from 2009 to 2010. Regression, coupled with the team's lack of a real receiving threat after Steve Smith, led to a 12 percent decrease in targets to the position. The tight ends and running backs split the extra targets. In 2010, the offense will be better, but Matt Moore will have a lot of youth to deal with at wide receiver. Because of this, we shouldn't expect a huge change in targets to the position. The emergence of Dwayne Jarrett or Brandon LaFell, however, would still allow the position to see a middle-of-the-pack number of targets.
CHICAGO BEARS — The addition of Mike Martz as offensive coordinator in Chicago means more passes to the running backs and receivers and very few to the tight end. This shows up on the chart as one of the biggest changes we will see this year. The Bears relied heavily on the tight end position last year, but the addition of pass-catching running back Chester Taylor and the emergence of Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu means fewer looks for Greg Olsen and company. Despite the 13 percent drop, the 15 percent of passes you see projected to go to the tight end would actually be a new high for a Martz offense. Bears wide receivers and running backs are the winners, while Olsen is the obvious big loser.
DALLAS COWBOYS — Dallas is another team that has shown consistency with targets over the last two seasons. The reliance on Jason Witten and the tight end unit is up there with the highest in the league, while the running backs rank among the most unused. The receivers could see a few-percent increase thanks to an increase in talent at the position, as well as the injury to seldom-used tight end John Phillips. Don't expect to see an increase in targets for the running backs, as the personnel hasn't changed. 2010's projection splits should look a lot like what we've seen the last two seasons.
DETROIT LIONS — Jim Schwartz‘ first year as head coach was also Matthew Stafford‘s first as quarterback. The team's target distribution changed a ton from where it was the year prior. The wide receiver position was used very little outside of Calvin Johnson, with a high amount of passes going to the running backs and tight ends. The addition of Nate Burleson and the maturation of Stafford will mean an improved passing game across the board. Running backs, especially Jahvid Best, will still see a decent amount of looks, but not quite as many as in 2009. The addition of Tony Scheffler gives Stafford another option in the passing game, but also means Brandon Pettigrew will do more blocking and less receiving. Still, the two should combine for about 25% of the targets, which is a slight increase over 2009.
GREEN BAY PACKERS — Last season's emergence of JerMichael Finley was the reason for the extreme change in targets between wide receivers and tight ends. Considering Finley didn't emerge until several weeks into the season, it is fair to assume that the tight end position will see an even larger piece of the pie in 2010. Although the Packers are near the top of the league in passes to the tight end, the team's talented group of wide receivers is still able to sit around league average in targets because of the extremely low amount of passes directed to the running backs. With Ryan Grant back and expected to be on the field for most of the offensive plays, this shouldn't change much in 2010. A healthy Brandon Jackson is the biggest threat to catch balls out of the backfield.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS — Despite the addition of Brett Favre, the 2009 Vikings target distribution was almost identical to 2008. Pass-catching running back Chester Taylor was replaced by bruiser Toby Gerhart this offseason, which means a few more targets for Adrian Peterson but fewer targets for the position as a whole. The team's tight end situation hasn't changed, so expect Visanthe Shiancoe to be targeted about as much as he was in 2009. The development of sophomore Percy Harvin and continued stellar play of 2009 breakout Sidney Rice will allow Favre to use the wide receiver more often.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS — Despite turning to the run a lot more often in 2009, New Orleans is yet another team that changed its pass distribution very little. Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas have emerged as outstanding pass-catching options and are the reason why New Orleans throws to the running back more than all but a few teams. The Saints are middle-of-the-pack in terms of using the tight end, but Jeremy Shockey‘s age/health issues and the return of now-healthy wide receiver Lance Moore could mean a small drop in looks for the position this year. Although Drew Brees uses the wide receiver very little, the team's passing game is so effective that players like Marques Colston, and to a lesser extent, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem remain fantasy relevant.
NEW YORK GIANTS — The Giants throw to the wide receiver more than any team in the NFL, and there is little reason to expect a change in 2010. The team's situation at running back (Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs) and tight end (Kevin Boss) has not changed and the receiving unit should only be better. Steve Smith emerged as one of the game's best possession receivers last season, while Hakeem Nicks is in perfect position to put up WR2 numbers in 2010. Mario Manningham, Ramses Barden, and Victor Cruz add some young talent and flash to the position.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES — The Eagles are relatively average in each category, but above average when it comes to running back and tight end usage and slightly below average in wide receiver usage. The 2009 emergence of Brent Celek allowed the Eagles to rely more on the position, and they will do just that again this season. There wasn't much of a drop in throws to the running back last season despite the injuries to Brian Westbrook, which bodes well for LeSean McCoy‘s role in the pass game. Although DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant are quickly becoming one of the league's best WR trios, the Andy Reid gameplan won't change much. Celek and the running backs will still be relied on in the passing game.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS — A new coach means new trends. Last season, the Seahawks, under Jim Mora, relied heavily on the running back and very little on the tight end. This season, under Pete Carroll, expect to see a few more passes headed to John Carlson at the tight end position. Carlson was stuck blocking to help a struggling offensive line in 2009, but an improved line, coupled with the addition of tight ends Chris Baker and Anthony McCoy, means more route running for Carlson. Seattle should still be among the league leaders in passes to the running back when you consider that they added playmaker Leon Washington to man the backfield on third down. The team is as deep with risk as they are talent at the wide receiver position, which will lead to more reliance on Carlson and less on the receivers.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS — One of the biggest target distribution changes from 2008 to 2009 was the 49ers' switch from throwing to the wide receiver a ton to throwing to the tight end more than anyone. This was clearly a product of the emergence of Vernon Davis, who will be heavily relied on again in 2010. Despite a projected 2 percent drop in throws to the tight end, they still are tops in the NFL in reliance on the position. Frank Gore is going to catch his fair share of passes and the addition of Brian Westbrook only means more passes to the running back. With the tight ends and RBs seeing most of the action, Michael Crabtree and the wide receiver unit are stuck at the bottom of the league in targets. Crabtree will be fantasy relevant as a result of seeing about the same amount of targets as Davis, but don't get too excited for any other 49ers wide receivers.
ST. LOUIS RAMS — The Rams don't exactly stand out when it comes to talented receiving options, which may explain why they are relatively balanced in their target distribution. Steven Jackson is one of the most relied on players in the league and that carries over to the passing game. Still, he is the target on most passes to the position, which leaves the team below average in that department. Daniel Fells could emerge as one of the top pass-catchers on the team this season, which means TE2 status in fantasy. The team has some intriguing young options at the wide receiver position and there will be plenty of targets to go around. Donnie Avery and Laurent Robinson will see most of the looks, but Danny Amendola, Mardy Gilyard, and Brandon Gibson will be worked into the mix as well. The Rams will approach the top 10 in targets to the position.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS — The Buccaneers added Kellen Winslow last season, which meant heavier usage of the tight end position. Add TE2 Jerramy Stevens to the mix and the Bucs were one of the teams most reliant on the position in the pass game. Considering the team is inexperienced at the wide receiver position, Winslow and Stevens will see plenty of looks again in 2010. The Bucs do not throw to the running backs, led by Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams, very often. This means that while the tight ends are near the top of the league in target percentage, the Bucs backs and receivers are both towards the bottom.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS — Mike Shanahan was brought onboard and has completely overhauled the offense. Still, the team's strength in the receiving game is going to be the tight end duo of Chris Cooley and Fred Davis. Expect to see tons of footballs headed their direction and for the Redskins to end up as one of the most reliant teams on the position. Larry Johnson can catch the football and Clinton Portis is expected to handle third-down activities, which means the team should fall about league average in targets to the running back position. After Santana Moss, the Redskins have plenty of question marks at the wide receiver position. Fortunately for them, the team has the aforementioned tight ends to help in the receiving game. Not many teams will rely on their wide receivers less than the Redskins.
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 Projection |
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| Pos | Team | Head Coach | Trg% | Head Coach | Trg% | Change | Head Coach | Trg% | Change |
| RB | ARI | Ken Whisenhunt | 18% | Ken Whisenhunt | 22% | 4% | Ken Whisenhunt | 22% | 0% |
| TE | ARI | 6% | 6% | 0% | 14% | 8% | |||
| WR | ARI | 76% | 72% | -4% | 63% | -9% | |||
| RB | ATL | Mike Smith | 19% | Mike Smith | 16% | -3% | Mike Smith | 17% | 1% |
| TE | ATL | 7% | 28% | 21% | 27% | -1% | |||
| WR | ATL | 75% | 57% | -18% | 55% | -2% | |||
| RB | CAR | John Fox | 14% | John Fox | 20% | 6% | John Fox | 20% | 0% |
| TE | CAR | 16% | 22% | 6% | 21% | -1% | |||
| WR | CAR | 70% | 57% | -12% | 58% | 1% | |||
| RB | CHI | Lovie Smith | 21% | Lovie Smith | 16% | -5% | Lovie Smith | 22% | 6% |
| TE | CHI | 30% | 28% | -2% | 15% | -13% | |||
| WR | CHI | 50% | 56% | 6% | 62% | 6% | |||
| RB | DAL | Wade Phillips | 18% | Wade Phillips | 15% | -3% | Wade Phillips | 15% | 0% |
| TE | DAL | 30% | 30% | 1% | 28% | -2% | |||
| WR | DAL | 52% | 55% | 3% | 56% | 1% | |||
| RB | DET | Rod Marinelli | 18% | Jim Schwartz | 23% | 5% | Jim Schwartz | 21% | -2% |
| TE | DET | 14% | 24% | 10% | 25% | 1% | |||
| WR | DET | 68% | 53% | -15% | 53% | 0% | |||
| RB | GB | Mike McCarthy | 15% | Mike McCarthy | 16% | 1% | MikeMcCarthy | 15% | -1% |
| TE | GB | 15% | 25% | 10% | 27% | 2% | |||
| WR | GB | 70% | 59% | -11% | 57% | -2% | |||
| RB | MIN | Brad Childress | 25% | Brad Childress | 23% | -2% | Brad Childress | 21% | -2% |
| TE | MIN | 20% | 18% | -1% | 18% | 0% | |||
| WR | MIN | 55% | 58% | 3% | 60% | 2% | |||
| RB | NO | Sean Payton | 25% | Sean Payton | 26% | 0% | Sean Payton | 25% | -1% |
| TE | NO | 25% | 23% | -2% | 21% | -2% | |||
| WR | NO | 50% | 51% | 2% | 53% | 2% | |||
| RB | NYG | Tom Coughlin | 18% | Tom Coughlin | 14% | -4% | Tom Coughlin | 15% | 1% |
| TE | NYG | 14% | 16% | 3% | 15% | -1% | |||
| WR | NYG | 69% | 70% | 1% | 69% | -1% | |||
| RB | PHI | Andy Reid | 22% | Andy Reid | 20% | -1% | Andy Reid | 21% | 1% |
| TE | PHI | 18% | 22% | 5% | 22% | 0% | |||
| WR | PHI | 61% | 57% | -3% | 56% | -1% | |||
| RB | SEA | Mike Holmgren | 20% | Jim Mora | 23% | 4% | Pete Carroll | 22% | -1% |
| TE | SEA | 20% | 15% | -4% | 20% | 5% | |||
| WR | SEA | 61% | 61% | 1% | 57% | -4% | |||
| RB | SF | Mike Nolan/ Mike Singletary |
22% | Mike Singletary | 20% | -2% | Mike Singletary | 21% | 1% |
| TE | SF | 14% | 32% | 17% | 30% | -2% | |||
| WR | SF | 64% | 48% | -16% | 48% | 0% | |||
| RB | STL | Scott Linehan/ Jim Haslett | 23% | Steve Spagnuolo | 21% | -2% | Steve Spagnuolo | 20% | -1% |
| TE | STL | 12% | 20% | 8% | 18% | -2% | |||
| WR | STL | 65% | 59% | -6% | 61% | 2% | |||
| RB | TB | Jon Gruden | 24% | Raheem Morris | 18% | -6% | Raheem Morris | 17% | -1% |
| TE | TB | 22% | 31% | 10% | 28% | -3% | |||
| WR | TB | 54% | 51% | -3% | 54% | 3% | |||
| RB | WAS | Jim Zorn | 17% | Jim Zorn | 21% | 4% | Mike Shanahan | 20% | -1% |
| TE | WAS | 26% | 23% | -3% | 28% | 5% | |||
| WR | WAS | 56% | 56% | 0% | 51% | -5% | |||
*Note: The projected targets add up to 99 percent intentionally. This accounts for a few throw aways/spikes.
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