As fantasy owners struggled with byes for the first time, the Week 5 target landscape tilted heavily in favor of slot receivers and other obscure names. Early Doucet (13), Damian Williams (11), Victor Cruz (11), Dane Sanzenbacher (10), Jason Avant (10), Darrius Heyward-Bey (9), and Doug Baldwin (9) all took up residence in the Top 10. More than ever before, defenses seem determined to take away star receivers. Unless you’re the legendary leader of the Decepticons and imbued with all of the freakish physical abilities thus implied, the strategy has been fairly successful. Knowing the target numbers for this week is less valuable than getting a glimpse at the possibilities for the next. That’s where PFF’s Advanced Target breakdown comes into play.
Simple Targets
When examining targets by team, pay special attention to Green Bay, Denver, New Orleans, both New York squads, Oakland, Philadelphia, and Seattle. Some of the splits are surprising. Year-to-date numbers are in parentheses.
ARZ – Early Doucet 13 (32), Larry Fitzgerald 8 (41), Andre Roberts 6 (20)
ATL – Roddy White 9 (55), Harry Douglas 5 (18), Julio Jones 4 (40)
BUF – Naaman Roosevelt 6 (8), Stevie Johnson 5 (41), David Nelson 2 (31)
CAR – Steve Smith 7 (48), Legedu Naanee 7 (32), Brandon LaFell 2 (18)
CHI – Dane Sanzenbacher 10 (27), Devin Hester 7 (26), Sam Hurd 5 (10), Johnny Knox 2 (23)
CIN – A.J. Green 8 (41), Jerome Simpson 7 (32), Andre Caldwell 3 (23)
DEN – Eric Decker 5 (39), Brandon Lloyd 4 (32), Matt Willlis 3 (13)
DET – Calvin Johnson 6 (45), Titus Young 4 (22), Nate Burleson 4 (25)
GB – James Jones 7 (20), Jordy Nelson 7 (27), Greg Jennings 4 (29), Donald Driver 2 (16)
HOU – Jacoby Jones 9 (18), Kevin Walter 6 (12)
IND – Pierre Garcon 7 (34), Reggie Wayne 7 (42), Austin Collie 2 (26)
JAX – Jason Hill 8 (27), Mike Thomas 7 (44)
KC – Dwayne Bowe 11 (37), Steve Breaston 4 (19)
MIN – Michael Jenkins 6 (24), Devin Aromashodu 5 (11), Percy Harvin 2 (27)
NE – Wes Welker 8 (63), Deion Branch 8 (33), Chad Ochocinco 3 (14)
NO – Marques Colston 6 (18), Lance Moore 5 (24), Robert Meachem 5 (31)
NYG – Victor Cruz 11 (28), Mario Manningham 9 (27), Hakeem Nicks 7 (43)
NYJ – Plaxico Burress 7 (30), Santonio Holmes 6 (33), Jeremy Kerley 3 (4)
OAK – Darrius Heyward-Bey 9 (25), Jacoby Ford 7 (13), Denarius Moore 5 (25)
PHI – Jason Avant 10 (34), Jeremy Maclin 7 (43), DeSean Jackson 6 (33)
PIT – Hines Ward 8 (28), Mike Wallace 7 (40), Antonio Brown 4 (35)
SD – Malcolm Floyd 6 (24), Vincent Jackson 5 (35)
SEA – Doug Baldwin 9 (27), Ben Obomanu 7 (25), Sidney Rice 5 (21)
SF – Josh Morgan 6 (19), Michael Crabtree 5 (22)
TB – Mike Williams 9 (37), Arrelious Benn 4 (18), Dez Briscoe 2 (8), Preston Parker 2 (22)
TEN – Damian Williams 11 (20), Nate Washington 8 (39), Lavelle Hawkins 7 (20)
Targets Per Pass Route
If you want to know just how difficult the Oakland receivers are to play this year, you need not only look at the Darrius Heyward-Bey breakout but the potential re-emergence of Jacoby Ford. Ford only gained 36 yards on Sunday, but he was targeted on 47% of his routes, far and away the most of any receiver with more than two targets.
Dwayne Bowe is quietly on his way to disproving those who saw his 2010 fantasy performance as unsustainable. The No. 6 rated WR by PFF through five weeks, Bowe should be in the conversation as the second most valuable reality WR in the NFL. Despite the absence of blazing speed or consistent hands, Bowe is a physical mismatch both in terms of getting open and running after the catch. The WR most comparable to Terrell Owens in his prime, Bowe would be generating serious buzz playing somewhere other than Kansas City. He was targeted on 37% of his routes in Week 5, which gave him a salty 4.27 yards per route to go with his two touchdowns.
The weekly PFF Advanced Targets Red Flag Award should be permanently named after Jordy Nelson and/or the Green Bay Packers. This week’s flag goes to James Jones who was targeted on 36% of his routes. James has effectively eliminated Donald Driver as a competitor for snaps, but his 20 routes is still a very limited number. Jordy Nelson ran 25 routes and turned them into only 17 yards. Both players are receiving significant targets on very few routes and need incredible efficiency from the Green Bay passing game to be fantasy viable.
Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t discriminate when it comes to his slot receivers. Naaman Roosevelt saw targets on 29% of his snaps after the Donald Jones injury moved David Nelson out wide. After shifting positions, Nelson’s targets cratered to 7%. As noted in last week’s column, Jones was leading the Bills in routes heading into Week 5. Although not a big name, his absence does considerable damage to Buffalo’s fantasy notables and thrusts Roosevelt into the position to become a Doug Baldwin-type breakout candidate.
Targets Per Snap
Victor Cruz was targeted on 25% of his snaps Sunday. This is both an encouraging sign for Cruz’s long term ceiling and a red flag for the sustainability of his numbers over the next several weeks. As Mike Clay pointed out in this week’s Snap Report, Manningham played more snaps, ran more routes, and was also heavily targeted. This could turn into a James Jones/Jordy Nelson scenario but with the trappings of a much less efficient offense.
At the other end of the spectrum, Steve Breaston scored two touchdowns but managed targets on only 6% of his snaps. When healthy, Breaston is an excellent reality player, but we probably just saw the best fantasy game he’ll record as a Chief. Jonathan Baldwin is expected to be active when Kansas City comes off the bye in Week 7, and the Chiefs remain very run-heavy.
Due to nagging injuries, the continued absence of Antonio Gates, and an early lead, Vincent Jackson was targeted on a mere 7% of his snaps in Week 5. Jackson has become a weekly mention in this column due to his strange and oft-changing peripherals. Coming into the season, he’d never been a target hog in the Chargers offense and was overvalued, especially in PPR formats.
Brandon LaFell continues to flash in his second season but played only 27 snaps on Sunday. That he was targeted on only 7% of those relegates him to the very deepest of leagues. Nothing suggests the Panthers will emerge from their Legedu Naanee delusion any time soon.
Yards Per Pass Route
Calvin Johnson is on pace to break Randy Moss’s single-season TD record, but before Sunday his yards per route numbers were unimpressive. He notched a 4.81 mark against the Bears, and, if not for the propensity of Cunningham-coordinated defenses to commit drive-extending 3rd down penalties, might have had a much bigger day.
All three Colts WRs were over 2.8 yards per route on Sunday, confirming the wisdom of going with Curtis Painter. Unfortunately Indianapolis came very close to recording zero offensive snaps in the second half off their tilt with KC. Bill Polian has left that team with far more holes than just backup QB.
Arrelious Benn paced the Bucs with 46 yards on 18 routes (2.56). Mike Williams, Dezmon Briscoe, Preston Parker, and Michael Spurlock were held below single digits. No Tampa player is currently among the Top 40 WRs in the PFF pass ratings.
Robert Meachem (1.06), Stevie Johnson (1.04), Julio Jones (0.89), Brandon Lloyd (0.87), Sidney Rice (0.83), and Percy Harvin (0.65) were all disappointing on a per route basis. The narratives that accompany these struggles all suggest players you’d be well advised to sell.
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