Two rookie wideouts burst onto the scene last week. Leonard Hankerson led the NFL in routes in Week 9, foreshadowing his breakout game. Unfortunately, he suffered a torn labrum in his hip and is out for the season. Keep his name in mind. He’ll be undervalued in next year’s drafts.
Vincent Brown won't be flying under anyone's radar as his 9 target performance was broadcast to everyone lucky enough to get the NFL channel. Those who spent the last of their FAAB to acquire his services will be encouraged to know he also ran 50 routes and posted solid peripherals across the board.
A week ago, Advanced Targets suggested benching DeSean Jackson and Andy Reid took the suggestion to heart. Keep reading to find out which players have the best and worst peripherals after Week 10.
Simple Targets
The weekly target breakdown by team features players with double digit looks in bold. Full season numbers are in parentheses.
ARI – Larry Fitzgerald 13 (80), Andre Roberts 6 (40), Early Doucet 3 (50), Chansi Stuckey 2 (5)
ATL – Harry Douglas 13 (42), Roddy White 7 (86), Julio Jones 4 (48), Eric Weems 3 (4)
BAL – Anquan Boldin 9 (80), Torrey Smith 7 (48), LaQuan Williams 1 (12)
BUF – Donald Jones 9 (44), David Nelson 5 (54), Steve Johnson 5 (69), Naaman Roosevelt 2 (16)
CAR – Legedu Naanee 9 (53), Steve Smith 8 (81), Brandon LaFell 2 (26)
CHI – Earl Bennett 6 (16), Johnny Knox 2 (36), Roy Williams 2 (27)
CIN – Andre Caldwell 8 (49), Andrew Hawkins 6 (12), Jerome Simpson 4 (56), A.J. Green 2 (66)
CLE – Greg Little 6 (63), Josh Cribbs 4 (39), Jordan Norwood 3 (12)
DAL – Dez Bryant 6 (50), Laurent Robinson 3 (36)
DEN – Eric Decker 3 (62), Matt Willis 1 (19), Eddie Royal 1 (29)
DET – Calvin Johnson 18 (89), Nate Burleson 9 (53), Titus Young 8 (43)
GB – Jordy Nelson 5 (45), Greg Jennings 5 (68), Donald Driver 4 (28), Randall Cobb 3 (16), James Jones 1 (27)
HOU – Jacoby Jones 2 (39), Derrick Mason 2 (9), Kevin Walter 1 (35)
IND – Pierre Garcon 6 (76), Reggie Wayne 6 (76), Austin Collie 5 (52)
JAX – Chastin West 5, Jarett Dillard 2 (12), Mike Thomas 1 (56), Jason Hill 1 (42)
KC – Dwayne Bowe 6 (71), Steve Breaston 6 (49), Jonathan Baldwin 5 (22)
MIA – Brandon Marshall 9 (87), Davone Bess 6 (52), Brian Hartline 3 (37)
MIN – Percy Harvin 6 (47), Michael Jenkins 4 (43), Devin Aromashodu 3 (27), Greg Camarillo 2 (3)
NE – Deion Branch 9 (58), Wes Welker 8 (97), Chad Ochocinco 2 (23)
NO – Marques Colston 9 (56), Lance Moore 3 (46), Robert Meachem 2 (41), Devery Henderson 2 (30)
NYG – Victor Cruz 10 (64), Mario Manningham 10 (60), Hakeem Nicks 4 (64)
NYJ – Santonio Holmes 8 (53), Plaxico Burress 8 (55), Jeremy Kerley 6 (26), Patrick Turner 1 (2)
OAK – Denarius Moore 7 (51), Jacoby Ford 1 (27), T.J.Houshmandzadeh 1 (5), Louis Murphy 1 (7)
PHI – Steve Smith 10 (19), Jeremy Maclin 6 (69), Riley Cooper 2, Jason Avant 1 (47)
PIT – Mike Wallace 10 (75), Antonio Brown 6 (76), Jerricho Cotchery 4 (12), Hines Ward 1 (38)
SD – Vincent Brown 9 (19), Vincent Jackson 6 (67), Patrick Crayton 5 (21)
SEA – Sidney Rice 4 (51), Doug Baldwin 3 (48), Golden Tate 3 (19), Ben Obomanu 1 (34), Mike Williams 1 (22)
SF – Braylon Edwards 5 (22), Ted Ginn 4 (18), Michael Crabtree 3 (53)
STL – Brandon Lloyd 9 (77), Austin Pettis 4 (16), Brandon Gibson 3 (40)
TB – Arrelious Benn 5 (32), Mike Williams 4 (72), Preston Parker 4 (40), Dez Briscoe 2 (23)
TEN – Damian Williams 6 (42), Nate Washington 4 (58), Lavelle Hawkins 1 (40)
WAS – Leonard Hankerson 9 (19), Jabar Gaffney 6 (56), David Anderson 2 (4)
Pass Routes Run
It was easy to miss which players ran the most routes this past week. Of the sixteen players who logged 40 or more patterns, only Larry Fitzgerald (44), Santonio Holmes (43), and Harry Douglas (41) managed more than 2 yards per route. Inefficiency helped obscure the opportunities provided to Roddy White (52), Anquan Boldin (51), and Steve Smith (50).
All three Lions managed 50 or more routes, and all of them were under 1.4 yards per route as Matthew Stafford dealt with a fractured finger and swirling winds.
Two rookies currently reside in the Top 20 on the full year leaderboard. Torrey Smith (332) and Greg Little (329) are both making plenty of mistakes and playing with struggling QBs, but they remain playable due to their upside and situation.
The biggest disappointment for deep leaguers was probably Austin Pettis who saw only 13 routes despite the relative inactivity of Mark Clayton (5). Expect their roles to grow at the expense of Brandon Gibson who posted an unseemly line of 3 targets/0 receptions/22 routes.
Considering Tebow only completed two passes, you probably don’t need route numbers to know Eric Decker (8) should probably be released in most leagues, even with his obvious touchdown potential.
Targets Per Route
Advanced Targets proclaimed Victor Cruz a borderline WR1 after Week 8, and he continued to impress with a 33% target rate. Don’t let the touchdowns scored by Manningham and Nicks fool you into thinking Cruz's value is on the decline. He equaled Manningham's 10 targets and led the Giants in yards and yards per route.
Harry Douglas (32%) and Julio Jones (29%) both saw a heavy target rate opposite a sputtering Roddy White (13%). White’s full season peripherals continue to sag. In shallow leagues, he’s no longer a must start.
Brandon Lloyd’s nine targets on Sunday raised his target rate since joining the Rams to 32%. No player is averaging a higher number on the season.
Before the year began, it was fair to wonder where Antonio Brown’s targets would come from playing behind Wallace, Ward, and Sanders in a run-first offense. With another big game Sunday, Brown’s target rate rose to 29%, best among WRs with at least 200 routes. He continues to act as a clear cut WR1.
Michael Crabtree (12%), Mike A. Williams (10%), and Mike Thomas (5%) all came in toward the bottom of the rankings for Week 10. Crabtree’s numbers show a sharp correction after several very encouraging weeks. Williams and Thomas are playing in dysfunctional offenses with struggling QBs. Williams has reached the point where even deep leaguers might go in a different direction, and Thomas is probably droppable in all formats.
Jordy Nelson Red Flag
Can anyone other than Nelson thrive despite such limited opportunities? This week's red flag goes to Denarius Moore. The Oakland rookie ran only 19 routes in Week 10 but turned those patterns into 7 targets, 5 receptions, 123 yards, and 2 TDs. Needless to say, his 37% target rate and 6.5 yards per route are both impressive and unsustainable. The concern for Moore isn’t his status as a late round rookie receiver. In fact, rookies who put together a breakout performance like Moore did in Week 2 usually go on to very strong debut seasons. Instead, he faces a similar issue to that of the pass-catchers in Houston.
Moore runs a route on only 55% of his snaps, a number which ranks 107th out of 127 players with at least 10 targets. Jacoby Ford, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Chaz Schilens all rank even lower. Although it would have been a less efficient performance, Moore's ability to achieve WR2/3 status would be much more secure if he’d put up the same fantasy numbers on 35 or 40 routes.
Yards Per Pass Route
After apparently working behind the scenes to help engineer the Kevin Kolb acquisition, Larry Fitzgerald finally exploded for 3.3 yards per route with the rocket-armed John Skelton at the helm. There’s a lot that goes into being an NFL QB, and if his -2.8 rating for Sunday is any indication, Skelton still does much of it poorly. But from a purely fantasy perspective, there’s no question which QB you want lined up under center for the Cardinals if you’re a Fitzgerald owner.
Damian Williams put up the best game of his career, turning 6 targets into 107 yards and a gaudy 4.3 yards per route number.
At the other end of the spectrum were players like Dwayne Bowe (0.47), Vincent Jackson (0.46), Reggie Wayne (0.38), and Jeremy Maclin (0.26). Of course, none of them were as bad as Jerome Simpson who saw more passes intended for him end in interceptions (1) than completions (0).
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