One of my goals this offseason was to quantitatively find out the best time to grab each position in a standard serpentine draft.
Part one of the series featuring quarterbacks can be found here. Part two of the series featuring tight ends can be found here. Part three of the series featuring wide receivers can be found here:
Here are the parameters I used behind the curtain for this study:
The top-60 running backs from each of the past three seasons were charted based on their positional rank and average draft position (ADP). The draft data was compiled from MyFantasyLeague.com’s completed drafts after August 15th prior to each season. Next, average value theory (AVT) was used to provide an expected value (PPG) for every player based on their positional rank in the draft.
With that data in place, a PPG +/- was calculated based on a player’s expected PPG and actual production. In the case of the wide receivers, slightly over half of the players finished within 2 points of their expected PPG on the season. Players finishing with more than +3 in PPG were considered a hit, lower than -3 considered a bust for the season.
Here are the top-10 running backs in terms of PPG +/-, the biggest values at the position over the past three seasons:
| Year | Pos.RK | ADP | Player | PPG | Exp.PPG | PPG +/- |
| 2010 | 25 | 59 | Arian Foster | 24 | 10 | 14 |
| 2011 | 31 | 81 | Fred Jackson | 21 | 9 | 12 |
| 2010 | 38 | 114 | Darren McFadden | 20 | 8 | 12 |
| 2011 | 49 | 147 | Darren Sproles | 17 | 6 | 11 |
| 2009 | 57 | 159 | Ricky Williams | 15 | 5 | 10 |
| 2009 | 24 | 60 | Ray Rice | 20 | 11 | 9 |
| 2009 | 50 | 153 | Jamaal Charles | 15 | 6 | 9 |
| 2009 | 8 | 11 | Chris Johnson | 24 | 16 | 8 |
| 2010 | 16 | 37 | Lesean McCoy | 20 | 13 | 7 |
| 2011 | 32 | 81 | Marshawn Lynch | 16 | 9 | 7 |
Arian Foster had a buzz prior to 2010, vaulting him from a no-name all the way to a fifth round pick for fantasy owners. That was nothing compared to the 24 PPG he put up as the unquestioned starter in Houston. Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, and Chris Johnson were all young surprises in 2009. An interesting note is the average age of the list of surprise running backs: 25 years old. The average is only that high because of Ricky Williams’ renaissance as a 32-year-old for Miami in 2009 and Fred Jackson lighting the fantasy world on fire in 2011. The lesson to be learned here is when in doubt, go young at running back for the best chance at hitting PPG gold.
On the flip side, here are the running backs with -7 or less in PPG +/- based on their expected PPG:
| Year | Pos.RK | ADP | Player | PPG | Exp.PPG | PPG +/- |
| 2010 | 11 | 25 | Ryan Grant | 5 | 15 | -10 |
| 2009 | 36 | 103 | Leon Washington | 0 | 9 | -9 |
| 2010 | 1 | 1 | Chris Johnson | 17 | 24 | -7 |
| 2011 | 1 | 2 | Adrian Peterson | 17 | 24 | -7 |
| 2010 | 12 | 27 | Shonn Greene | 7 | 14 | -7 |
| 2010 | 19 | 46 | Beanie Wells | 5 | 12 | -7 |
| 2009 | 32 | 84 | Lendale White | 2 | 9 | -7 |
| 2010 | 43 | 129 | Montario Hardesty | 0 | 7 | -7 |
| 2011 | 43 | 131 | Ryan Williams | 0 | 7 | -7 |
| 2010 | 46 | 134 | Laurence Maroney | 0 | 7 | -7 |
| 2011 | 47 | 144 | Rashad Jennings | 0 | 7 | -7 |
Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson were not train wrecks in terms of production, but disappointed as #1 running backs in terms of ADP. The bar is set very high for 1st round backs and 17 PPG qualifies as a disappointment. They were the only players on this list end within the top-10 in terms of ADP, making early running backs a viable investment in fantasy. The group of running backs drafted outside the top-100 in ADP that were busts are not that impactful as they were likely replaced with waiver wire players early in the season.
Each ADP round includes an average PPG +/-. Finally, a formula was created to give an overall value score for each round of selections. It is a sliding scale where stability is valued more in the opening rounds as missing on a player early can set a fantasy team back from the start. In the later rounds, upside is more valued as the roster turnover on the backend of a roster is high if a player does not perform well during the season.
Finally, here is the breakdown by round at the running back position. The score is based on more stability in the early rounds and higher upside later in the draft. Some rounds were lumped together to give enough data for significance study.
| Round | Score | PPG +/- | PPG | Exp.PPG | Status Quo | Bust Rate | Hit Rate | |
| RB | 1 | 0.410 | -1.4 | 17.3 | 18.7 | 52% | 33% | 14% |
| RB | 2 | 0.427 | -0.8 | 14.1 | 14.9 | 60% | 33% | 7% |
| RB | 3 | 0.400 | -1.4 | 12.2 | 13.6 | 55% | 36% | 9% |
| RB | 4 | 0.365 | 0.9 | 13.2 | 12.3 | 54% | 15% | 31% |
| RB | 5 | 0.350 | 0.8 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| RB | 6,7 | 0.332 | 0.1 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| RB | 8,9 | 0.332 | 0.3 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 57% | 17% | 27% |
| RB | 10,11,12 | 0.240 | 0.5 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| RB | 13+ | 0.162 | 0.1 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 68% | 16% | 16% |
Even with the success of first round running backs as a whole, the second round emerged with a higher value score. The thirdround nearly equaled the first round as well. Fourth and fifthround backs actually had a positive PPG +/-, making them excellent investments for overall roster value. After the ninthround, even with little impact by busts, running backs provided little value with under a 20% hit rate.
Now that each position has been analyzed individually, this data will be combined to formulate an entire draft strategy for 2012 in terms of ADP for the final article in this series.
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